How do California’s registered-voter and eligible-voter turnout rates compare to national averages in 2024?
Executive summary
California’s turnout in the 2024 presidential election was lower than the national average when measured on the voting‑eligible population—about 62–62.1% in California versus roughly 64.1% nationwide [1] [2]. On the registered‑voter basis California’s turnout was higher in raw percentage than the eligible‑voter figure (roughly 71% of registered voters), but that registered‑voter metric still reflects a steeper drop from 2020 than the national decline and is complicated by differing methods for counting “eligible” residents [3] [4].
1. How the headline numbers compare: eligible‑voter turnout
California’s voting‑eligible turnout in 2024 is reported at about 62.0–62.1% by multiple analyses, which is roughly two percentage points below the national voting‑eligible turnout of 64.1% [1] [2]. The University of Southern California’s Center for Inclusive Democracy (CID) and other analysts put California’s eligible turnout near 62% and highlight a roughly 4.8 percentage‑point decline from 2020 in California specifically [1] [5]. Ballotpedia’s aggregation matches the 62.1% figure for California and the 64.1% national number, giving a consistent basis for comparing eligible‑voter turnout [2].
2. Registered‑voter turnout: higher numerically but weaker relative performance
Measured against registered voters, California’s 2024 turnout was estimated around 71% of registered voters casting ballots—higher than the eligible‑voter rate because the denominator excludes non‑registered adults—but that figure represents a notable drop from the extraordinary 2020 registered turnout and sits lower than many historical California comparisons [3] [4]. Analysts caution that California’s registered‑voter turnout masks a bigger story: the state added many new registrants via automatic registration and other measures, and turnout among those new registrants and key demographic groups fell more sharply in 2024 [6] [7].
3. California’s decline was steeper than the national slide
Multiple sources find California’s turnout fall from 2020 to 2024 exceeded the national decline: PPIC’s analysis suggests an outsized drop in California of as much as double the nationwide fall (PPIC contrasts an 11.3 percentage‑point California change against an estimated nationwide -2.9%) and CID documents a near‑five percentage‑point decline in eligible‑voter turnout in California, whereas broader national estimates put the drop at roughly 3 percentage points [4] [1] [8]. That divergence matters politically because California’s 2020 turnout was unusually high, so part of the 2024 decline reflects regression to a lower baseline—and part reflects differential disengagement among specific groups [4] [8].
4. Who drove the gap: demographics and counting caveats
Researchers point to concentrated decreases among young voters, Latinos, Asian Americans and some voters of color as the source of California’s sharper slide; for example CID and PPIC document double‑digit drops among 18–24 and 25–34 cohorts and larger losses among Latino and Asian‑American voters than among older, white voters [5] [9] [1]. Analysts also warn about technical caveats: California and national turnout rates depend on differing estimates of the voting‑eligible population and on how provisional and late‑counted ballots are treated—PPIC notes the state secretary of state’s eligible‑population estimates have varied and can change the percentage points reported [4] [10]. These methodological differences mean comparisons are accurate in direction and rough magnitude but are sensitive to the underlying population denominator chosen [4] [2].
5. Bottom line and implications
In sum, California underperformed the national average on the voting‑eligible metric in 2024—about 62% versus a 64.1% national rate—while showing roughly 71% turnout among registered voters, a decline from 2020 that was larger than the national slide and concentrated among younger and non‑white voters [2] [3] [1]. The numbers are clear enough to show a distinct California pattern, but interpretation should factor in California’s unusually high 2020 turnout, the state’s registration growth, and differences in how “eligible” populations are estimated [4] [6].