Can Trump avoid the next election
Executive summary
The short answer: in the current legal and political landscape, it is improbable that Donald Trump can be barred from the next presidential ballot by state action alone; the Supreme Court has constrained state efforts and left Congress as the central institutional route to disqualification under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment (or to pass legislation authorizing courts), while criminal convictions or voluntary withdrawal remain separate, uncertain paths [1] [2] [3]. Advocates for disqualification argue his January 6 role should bar him from office, but the Court and precedent have narrowed states’ tools and raised the bar for removal [4] [5].
1. The legal battleground: Supreme Court boxed states out of unilateral disqualification
A pivotal ruling on March 4, 2024, held that states cannot unilaterally determine a candidate’s eligibility under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, effectively foreclosing one major way that officials had sought to keep Trump off state ballots and signaling that only Congress (or new federal legislation) can carry out such disqualification for a national election [1].
2. What advocates for removal say: insurrection and self-disqualification claims
Legal commentators and some conservative jurists have argued that Trump “disqualified himself” by inciting the January 6 attack and therefore should be barred from running, a position advanced in opinion pieces and by scholars citing the text and history of the 14th Amendment and impeachment findings [4] [5].
3. The counterargument: institutional limits and separation of powers
The Supreme Court’s intervention reflected concerns about state-by-state chaos and the constitutional division of authority, with justices concluding that allowing each state to adjudicate eligibility would fracture national elections and that Congress is the appropriate actor to resolve who may be disqualified [1] [2].
4. Criminal convictions, prosecution, and voluntary choices: other paths — but fraught
Criminal indictments and convictions could complicate a campaign, but do not automatically remove a candidate from the ballot; Trump has publicly said he would not withdraw even if convicted, signaling a political resistance to stepping aside that would leave resolutions to courts and electors rather than to voluntary exit [3]. Reporting shows prosecutions narrowed some tactical options but did not create an automatic disqualification mechanism [6].
5. Political remedies and practical realities: Congress, voters and the parties
Because the Court limited state action, the only clear institutional path to keep a candidate off a national ballot under Section 3 is congressional action to disqualify, or new federal law authorizing courts to act — both politically fraught and unprecedented moves that would require majorities and invite partisan backlash; absent those, parties and voters remain the primary brakes, with party nomination rules and the electorate ultimately decisive [1] [2].
6. What the record on 2024 shows about feasibility in practice
The fallout from 2020 and the Jan. 6 hearings produced lawsuits and state-level efforts to block Trump that were prominent but ultimately constrained by higher court intervention; commentators warned that letting states decide eligibility would insert courts deeply into politics, and the Supreme Court’s decision reflected that institutional caution [5] [1]. Opinion pieces demanding exclusion underscore the public and legal debate but do not alter the current legal architecture [4].
7. Bottom line and limits of available reporting
Given existing rulings and Trump’s stated stance, he cannot realistically be kept off the ballot by state officials alone; removing him would demand either rare congressional action, a voluntary withdrawal, a legal disqualification arising from new federal law or court rulings that Congress authorizes, or an outcome at the ballot box — reporting establishes these constraints but cannot predict political choices or future legislation beyond the cited decisions [1] [2] [3].