Fact check: The carbon tax is making groceries unaffordable! Prices are skyrocketing because of Carney’s policies. #AxeTheTax

1. Summary of the results

The claim that the carbon tax is making groceries "unaffordable" and causing prices to "skyrocket" is not supported by the available evidence. Multiple analyses show that the carbon tax has a minimal impact on grocery prices:

• The Bank of Canada estimates it contributes only 0.15 percentage points to overall inflation ^{[1] [2]}
• University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe calculates the impact at less than 1% of grocery price increases, varying between 0.3-0.9% depending on region ^{[1] [1]}
• In practical terms, this translates to approximately 30 cents on a $100 grocery bill in Alberta ^[1]

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Several important contextual factors are missing from the original statement:

• The carbon tax includes a rebate system that returns 90% of revenue to households ^[2]
• Food inflation is driven by multiple factors, including:
• Supply chain disruptions
• The war in Ukraine
• Various other economic factors ^[1]

There are some concerns from the business perspective:

• 56% of businesses report they may need to raise prices due to tax pressures ^[3]
• Some argue the tax's impact on wholesale food prices and agri-food sector competitiveness has been underestimated ^[4]
• The impact could become more significant by 2030 if not properly managed ^[3]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The statement contains several misleading elements:

• It dramatically overstates the current impact of the carbon tax on grocery prices
• It ignores the rebate system that offsets costs for households
• It simplifies a complex issue by attributing price increases solely to the carbon tax

Potential beneficiaries of these narratives:

• Opposition political parties benefit from attributing inflation to government policies
• Some business groups benefit from opposing the tax to avoid additional costs
• Agricultural and food industry lobbies benefit from attributing their price increases to government policy rather than other factors

The statement appears designed to provoke emotional responses rather than provide accurate information about the relationship between carbon pricing and food costs.