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How did the 2024 eligible voter count compare to previous election years?
Executive summary
The 2024 eligible-voter (voting-eligible population or VEP) turnout rate fell from the 2020 peak but remained higher than most recent cycles: Ballotpedia reports overall turnout of eligible voters at 63.7% in 2024 versus 66.6% in 2020 [1]. Other analyses place 2024 turnout between about 64% (Catalist) and 65.3% voting as measured in the Census CPS, and note a large number of eligible non‑voters—roughly 85–89 million people—who did not cast ballots [2] [3] [4].
1. What “eligible voter count” means and why figures differ
When journalists and researchers discuss “eligible voters” they usually mean the voting‑eligible population (VEP) or the voting‑age population (VAP) adjusted for ineligible groups (noncitizens, disenfranchised felons in some states). University of Florida Election Lab/VEP estimates, the Census CPS voting supplement, Catalist’s voter‑file analyses, and advocacy groups each use different methods and denominators, which produces slightly different eligible‑voter counts and turnout rates [5] [3] [2]. Those methodological differences explain why one source reports 65.3% voted (Census CPS) while others report 63.7% or ~64% turnout (Ballotpedia, Catalist) [3] [1] [2].
2. How 2024 compares with 2020 and earlier years — the headline
Multiple data products agree on the headline pattern: turnout dropped from the extraordinary 2020 level. Ballotpedia notes overall turnout among eligible voters was 63.7% in 2024, lower than the 2020 record of 66.6% [1]. Catalist likewise reports turnout fell to about 64% in 2024 after spiking to 66% in 2020 [2]. The Census CPS shows 65.3% of the voting‑age population voted in 2024, a level below 2020’s peak but still high relative to many earlier cycles [3].
3. Scale: how many eligible people didn’t vote
Analysts highlight that tens of millions of eligible Americans stayed home. The Environmental Voter Project’s synthesis of Election Lab data estimated about 85.9 million eligible voters skipped the 2024 general election; Population Education and other summaries put the non‑voter count in the high tens of millions (about 89 million) depending on the denominator used [4] [6]. Those non‑voters exceeded the individual totals for each major candidate in absolute numbers, a factor many analysts flagged as politically consequential [4].
4. Where the drops were concentrated — geography and competitiveness
Reporting and post‑election analysis find the decline in turnout was not uniform. Catalist states the drop was concentrated in non‑competitive states while some battleground states exceeded their 2020 turnout [2]. California is singled out by PPIC as an example where turnout sank in 2024 versus 2020, although measurement differences in the state’s eligible population estimates complicate direct comparisons [7]. The Election Lab cautions that some state data are estimates and national totals may be revised when official administrative counts are compiled [5].
5. Demographics, partisanship and the “who didn’t vote” story
Post‑election surveys and file analyses indicate changes in who turned out mattered more than massive party switching. Pew and Catalist find that much of the 2024 outcome reflected differential turnout: Republicans were generally more likely to vote in 2024, and groups that had been more active in 2020 were less so in 2024 [8] [2]. Pew’s analysis also shows eligible non‑voters in 2024 were split in candidate preference (44% said they would have voted for Trump, 40% for Harris), contrasting with 2020 when eligible non‑voters leaned more toward Biden [9].
6. Limits, disagreements and what remains unsettled
Sources agree on the broad direction — turnout fell from 2020 — but differ on exact percentages and counts because of definitions and data sources (CPS survey vs. voter‑file and administrative tallies vs. modeled VEP) [3] [5] [2]. Ballotpedia, Catalist, the Census CPS and Election Lab each provide plausible but non‑identical estimates: 63.7% (Ballotpedia), ~64% (Catalist/Election Lab), and 65.3% of the voting‑age population voting (Census CPS) [1] [2] [3]. Available sources do not mention a single universally accepted final national VEP total that resolves those differences [5].
7. Why this matters for future elections
The arithmetic of eligible non‑voters — tens of millions — shows how turnout shifts concentrated in particular states or demographic groups can change outcomes even without massive net switching between parties [4] [2]. Analysts warn that targeting turnout among infrequent voters or reversing the drop in non‑competitive states could reshape future presidential maps; Pew and Catalist emphasize turnout composition more than massive partisan conversion as the driver in 2024 [9] [2].
If you’d like, I can prepare a short table comparing the specific turnout and non‑voter numbers reported by Ballotpedia, Catalist, Census CPS and the Election Lab, with notes on each source’s methodology.