How does November 4 2025 turnout compare to 2020 and 2018 national turnout percentages?

1. Why precise year-to-year comparisons depend on definitions

Turnout can be expressed against different denominators — Voting Age Population (VAP), Voting Eligible Population (VEP), or registered voters — and that choice changes the headline number. The American Presidency Project explains turnout is "usually measured as a ratio" and lists VAP, VEP and registered voters as legitimate but differing bases for calculation, meaning a single percentage can’t be assumed without specifying the method ^[4]. Analysts cited in the search results likewise rely on University of Florida Election Lab or U.S. Elections Project denominators to report topline turnout; Catalist for instance references the University of Florida Election Lab’s definitions when stating the 2024 turnout figure ^[3]. Any direct comparison between November 4, 2025 and prior years therefore requires the same denominator and data vendor — information not supplied for a 2025 national total in the materials you've given.

2. What the recent baselines tell us about 2018 and 2020

The midterm year 2018 was one of the highest midterm turnouts in modern history and is routinely used as a benchmark for "unusually high" midterm participation; Pew’s retrospective on 2018–2022 turnout notes that the last two midterms had turnout not seen since the 1960s ^{[5] [6]}. The 2020 presidential election generated historic turnout in raw votes and share of the eligible electorate — many datasets and summaries describe 2020 as a high-water mark for presidential participation ^{[7] [6]}. Sources in your set characterize 2020 turnout as "historic" and treat it as the comparison point for 2024 and beyond ^[3]. That makes 2018 a high midterm baseline and 2020 the recent presidential high against which later presidential turnout is measured.

3. What available 2024 reporting says about movement since 2020

Multiple sources supplied here report that national turnout in 2024 was high but generally a hair lower than 2020 depending on the measure and analyst. USAFacts reports that the Census Bureau estimated 65.3% of U.S. citizens voted in 2024, and that this represented a 1.5 percentage-point decline since 2020 ^[1]. Catalist’s post-election analysis states national turnout was 64% of the voter eligible population in 2024, "nearly matching 2020’s historic turnout" while explicitly citing the University of Florida Election Lab as the underlying framework for that topline ^[3]. Ballotpedia and the U.S. Elections Project are also invoked across the corpus for state-by-state and national turnout calculations, showing researchers rely on consistent public datasets but still reach slightly different headline numbers because of methodological choices ^{[2] [8]}.

4. Why November 4, 2025 can’t be slotted in with confidence

Among the documents you provided there are state-level pages for 2025 elections (for instance California’s special election turnout page and state election pages like North Carolina), but none supply a consolidated national turnout percentage for November 4, 2025 in the materials given. The California Secretary of State page lists county-by-county reporting for the California special election on November 4, 2025, but that is not a national figure and the sources do not include a national aggregate for that date ^[9]. Likewise, state election offices such as the Virginia Department of Elections publish turnout for November elections after certification, but the provided Virginia page does not offer a national total and does not state a 2025 national figure ^[10]. Therefore, available sources do not mention a certified national turnout percentage for November 4, 2025 to compare directly against 2020 or 2018.

5. How to make a valid comparison if you want one

To compare November 4, 2025 turnout with 2020 and 2018 in a defensible way, choose a consistent denominator (VEP is commonly used by the University of Florida Election Lab and by Catalist) and a single data vendor (U.S. Elections Project, University of Florida Election Lab, Census/USAFacts or Catalist). Catalist explicitly recommends using University of Florida Election Lab definitions when reporting "national turnout" and cites that dataset for their 64% VEP figure for 2024 ^[3]. The U.S. Elections Project and University of Florida Election Lab are frequently cited in Ballotpedia and other post-election summaries for 2018 and 2020 benchmarks ^{[2] [8]}. If you want, I can fetch and line up those vendor-specific VEP percentages for 2018, 2020, 2024, and — if available from the same vendor — 2025, but the current packet of sources does not contain a national 2025 total to report ^{[3] [2] [4]}.

6. Bottom line for readers

Based on the supplied reporting, 2020 remains the recent historic high in presidential turnout, and 2024/early 2025 summaries describe turnout as high but generally a fraction below 2020 depending on the dataset — for example, USAFacts records a 1.5-point drop to 65.3% in 2024 ^{[1] [3]}. Available sources do not mention a national November 4, 2025 turnout percentage, so any exact numeric comparison between November 4, 2025 and 2020 or 2018 can’t be supported from these documents ^{[9] [10]}. If you want a precise year-over-year table, tell me which turnout denominator and data vendor you prefer and I will pull the consistent figures from the datasets cited above.