How do Biden-era border numbers compare to previous administrations (Trump, Obama)?
Executive summary
Border encounters and deportation actions rose sharply during the Biden years compared with the Trump years: CBP-era tallies show roughly 1.95M–3.2M annual Southwest apprehensions in Biden’s first three full fiscal years versus roughly 527K–1.1M in Trump’s comparable years (fiscal 2017–2019) [1]. At the same time, analysts report Biden-era removals and expulsions increasingly took the form of returns at the border and rapid expulsions, producing deportation totals comparable to or even on pace to exceed Trump’s in some counts [2] [3] [4].
1. “Numbers surged at the border — but interpretations split”
Government and independent tallies show encounters at the southern border rose dramatically after 2020: Biden-era yearly encounters reached the millions (about 1.95M in FY2021, 2.7M in FY2022, and 3.2M in FY2023), far above the Trump-era yearly counts cited for FY2017–FY2019 (roughly 527K, 683K and 1.1M) [1]. Reporters and fact-checkers stress that raw encounter totals are a blunt metric: seasonal, pandemic and policy changes (Title 42’s use and end, Mexico’s enforcement, and asylum-rule shifts) all affect monthly and annual flows [5] [3] [6].
2. “Deportations: more returns and expulsions under Biden”
Several analyses find that Biden-era enforcement produced deportation figures that in some measures rival or exceed Trump’s—yet the composition changed. Migration Policy Institute and other analysts note that much of the Biden administration’s high deportation totals reflect returns and expulsions at the border rather than interior removals, with FY2023 marking the first time since FY2010 that more migrants were returned directly across the border than were removed from the interior [2]. Media reporting likewise said Biden-era deportations surpassed Trump’s 2019 record in certain counts [3].
3. “Release and removal rates complicate political claims”
FactCheck.org and other data explain that while raw encounter numbers under Biden are much larger (one analysis contrasted about 5 million Biden-era encounters to 1.4 million under Trump in comparable spans), the share removed versus released can look similar across administrations. One breakdown showed roughly 47% removed under Trump versus 51% under Biden in specific two-year comparisons — meaning higher removals in absolute terms but not a radically different removal rate once scale is considered [7]. Opponents and proponents both selectively cite absolute or percentage measures to bolster political narratives [7].
4. “Policy actions matter: executive moves and litigation shaped outcomes”
The Biden administration executed hundreds of immigration-related actions (MPI counted 605 through early December 2024), far more than many past administrations, and these actions — including asylum rule changes, paroles, and enforcement prioritization — reshaped flows and procedures and prompted sustained legal challenges from states [8]. Those policy choices, plus diplomatic deals with Mexico and others, factor into why encounter trends rose and why expulsions/returns were used at scale [2] [8].
5. “Short-term swings after mid-2024 and the politics of comparison”
Reporting from late 2024 into 2025 documents sharp swings: encounters peaked in December 2023 then fell after new asylum limits and international cooperation, and early-2025 reports show large declines under the subsequent Trump term — which the White House and Republican committees framed as a reversal of a “Biden-era crisis” [3] [9]. Fact-checkers caution that short windows (weeks or months) can overstate long-term policy effects and that seasonality and operational changes also explain abrupt drops [6].
6. “What the numbers don’t settle”
Available sources document differences in scale, method (returns vs interior removals), and administrative activity, but they do not converge on a single definitive metric of “who did better.” Some sources emphasize absolute encounters and say Biden’s totals dwarf Trump’s [1]; others emphasize the increasing use of border returns and comparable overall deportation counts [2] [3]. Comparative judgments depend on which measures one prioritizes — encounters, removals, returns, releases, or legal changes — and available reporting does not provide a single reconciled scorecard [7] [8].
Limitations: this synthesis uses the provided reporting only and does not include underlying CBP/ICE spreadsheets or later government releases that might revise totals. Sources present competing framings — factual counts versus interpretive claims — and readers should expect political actors to pick the metric that best supports their position [6] [9].