How do ICE removal numbers in FY2025 compare to FY2024?
Executive summary
ICE removal counts for FY2025 appear higher in updated releases than in earlier files, with the Deportation Data Project saying the late‑July 2025 ICE removals file shows “over 40,000 more removals” for FY2025 than the late‑June file and that the late‑June file also undercounted FY2024 by roughly 170,000 [1]. ICE’s own statistics pages and quarterly press releases provide removal tallies by quarter but do not, in the supplied material, give a straightforward FY2024 vs FY2025 annual comparison to validate every figure cited by third parties [2] [3] [4].
1. What the Deportation Data Project found: discrepancies between June and July files
The Deportation Data Project reports two anomalies in ICE’s posted datasets: first, the late‑June release apparently omitted roughly 170,000 removals for FY2024; second, the late‑July release contains more than 40,000 additional removals for FY2025 compared with the late‑June file. The Project concludes the late‑July dataset is more plausible and recommends using that file instead of the late‑June one [1].
2. Why the counts changed: data definition and file errors flagged
According to the Deportation Data Project, part of the discrepancy stems from which cases the ICE files included. The late‑June release mistakenly included removals of noncitizens processed via expedited removal or voluntary return who were never detained by ICE for part of FY2025; other missing FY2024 observations in the late‑June file remain unexplained but the late‑July FY2024 totals align with ICE’s 2024 annual report, supporting the Project’s assessment that the July file is more accurate [1].
3. What ICE’s own material in the provided set shows (and doesn’t show)
ICE maintains pages for Enforcement and Removal Operations statistics and archived quarterly/annual statistics [2] [4]. The supplied ICE press release for Q2/Q3 FY2024 notes ICE removed nearly 68,000 noncitizens in the third quarter — a quarter‑level datapoint consistent with large quarterly movements but not an annual FY2024 vs FY2025 side‑by‑side total in the provided materials [3]. Available sources do not mention a full FY2025 annual total on ICE pages in the material you provided [2] [4].
4. Independent corroboration and limits of the record
The Deportation Data Project cross‑checked the late‑July FY2024 figures against ICE’s 2024 annual report and found close agreement, which strengthens the argument that the late‑July files are preferable; they explicitly removed the late‑June file from their data page for users [1]. Beyond that, the corpus you supplied lacks a direct, single authoritative FY2024 vs FY2025 numeric comparison from ICE that confirms the exact delta between fiscal years, so definitive annual totals and percentage changes across FY2024→FY2025 are not available in these sources [2] [4].
5. Competing narratives and why they matter
One narrative — as pushed by the Deportation Data Project — is that raw ICE data releases contained errors and that corrected files materially increase FY2024 and FY2025 counts [1]. Another perspective, implicit in ICE’s maintained statistics pages and quarterly notices, is that ICE produces a suite of official tables and press releases that users should consult for final tallies; however, the provided ICE pages in this set do not directly address the June/July file swap or the precise 40,000+ FY2025 increase flagged by the Deportation Data Project [2] [4]. Users and analysts therefore must choose between relying on ICE’s original posted files or on third‑party cleaned/annotated datasets like the Deportation Data Project’s—each choice reflects a tradeoff between official provenance and corrected consistency [1] [2].
6. Practical guidance for analysts and reporters
Follow the Deportation Data Project’s recommendation to use the late‑July removals dataset if you want consistency across FY2024 and FY2025 because they document the June file’s omissions and the July file’s alignment with ICE’s annual report [1]. At the same time, check ICE’s official statistics/archived releases for quarterly totals and any formal corrections or annual reports that may post later [2] [4]. If you need specific FY2024 and FY2025 totals or percentage change figures for publication, note in your reporting which data file you used and cite the June vs July discrepancy as documented by the Deportation Data Project [1].
Limitations: the supplied sources document the discrepancy and recommend the late‑July file, but they do not supply a clean, authoritative ICE annual FY2025 total in the materials you provided; therefore a precise, independently confirmed FY2024→FY2025 percentage change is not available in current reporting [1] [2] [4].