How do approval ratings at comparable points in presidency compare for Biden, Obama, George W. Bush, and Reagan?

1. Presidents compared: clear headline contrasts

The simplest factual comparison in existing reporting is that Reagan and George W. Bush commanded higher approval at comparable re‑election‑cycle moments than Obama and Biden. Gallup’s year‑end snapshot noted Reagan at 54% in 1983 and George W. Bush at 58% in late 2003, while Obama was 43% in 2011 and Gallup put Biden at 39% at year‑end 2023 ^{[1] [2]}. Those numbers frame why commentators and strategists treat the modern political environment as more polarized than earlier eras ^[3].

2. What “comparable points” mean and why they matter

Scholars and pollsters commonly compare presidents at standard milestones—first 100 days, midterm or re‑election‑cycle year‑ends, and final ratings—because they offer like‑for‑like snapshots across administrations ^{[4] [5]}. Sources cited here use those points to argue that approval at these junctures correlates with political capital and re‑election prospects; Gallup’s historic tracking is the primary reference for those comparisons ^{[6] [7]}.

3. Partisanship and the widening approval gap

Gallup and Pew analyses emphasize that the modern partisan gap in approval ratings grew sharply from the Clinton era onward, deepening under George W. Bush, Obama and into the Trump and Biden years. Opposition‑party approval shares that were commonly in the 30s–40s decades earlier fell into the 10s or single digits more recently, which inflates polarization measures and depresses swing‑voter pools available to presidents like Obama and Biden ^{[3] [2]}.

4. Momentary highs and lows — context matters

Approval peaks and troughs often align with crises or victories. George W. Bush’s 2003 boost followed the capture of Saddam Hussein; Reagan had resilience after policy scandals and ended his term with strong numbers; conversely, presidents who left office during economic or international difficulties (Truman, Carter, George W. Bush at exit) saw much lower endings ^{[2] [3]}. That episodic volatility means single‑point comparisons should be read alongside broader trends over each term ^[2].

5. Different trackers, different averages — methodological caution

Multiple organizations track approval: Gallup’s long historical series is frequently cited, Pew provides comparative short reads, and aggregators like FiveThirtyEight average many pollsters ^{[6] [2] [8]}. Different methodologies and timing produce slightly different snapshots; for example, FiveThirtyEight’s rolling average will differ from a single Gallup month‑end figure ^[8]. Available sources do not provide a single harmonized table comparing Biden, Obama, Bush and Reagan at every identical calendar point.

6. What the numbers imply politically

Higher year‑end or mid‑cycle approval has historically correlated with easier paths to re‑election and stronger party performance; Gallup’s historical notes find winners seeking second terms usually have approval above 50% ^[6]. By that standard, Reagan’s and George W. Bush’s stronger mid‑cycle standings signaled political momentum that Obama’s and Biden’s lower numbers did not match at comparable points ^{[1] [2]}.

7. Limits of the available reporting

The sources provided give snapshots (Gallup, Pew, FiveThirtyEight, American Presidency Project) but do not deliver a single chart that lines up every president at identical elapsed‑time markers across both terms; constructing that would require pulling and harmonizing monthly Gallup or poll‑of‑polls data ^{[4] [6] [8]}. Available sources do not mention a unified dataset in this file that directly places Biden, Obama, George W. Bush and Reagan side‑by‑side for every comparable day of their presidencies.

Sources cited: Gallup analyses and snapshots ^{[6] [7] [3]}, Pew Research comparative readouts ^[2], FiveThirtyEight polling aggregation ^[8], and journalistic reporting citing Gallup (The Hill) and archival datasets (American Presidency Project) as referenced above ^{[1] [5]}.