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How does Trump's promise fulfillment rate compare to other presidents?
Executive summary
Presidential promise-tracking efforts for Donald Trump’s second term are active but varied: PolitiFact and AP are systematically cataloguing promises with multi-category ratings, while outlets like FactCheck and Axios highlight specific shortfalls (for example, tariff revenues exist but Congress must authorize spending) [1] [2] [3] [4]. Historical comparisons exist — analysts counted roughly 663 promises in 2016 with about a 23% fulfillment rate by 2021 — but available sources do not provide a single, authoritative, side‑by‑side fulfillment rate comparing Trump to other presidents across equivalent counting methods [5].
1. How journalists and fact‑checkers measure “promise fulfillment”
Different trackers use different rules. PolitiFact’s MAGA‑Meter applies five outcome categories (Promise Kept, Promise Broken, Compromise, In the Works, Stalled) and bases ratings on measurable outcomes rather than intentions, a method it used for Trump’s first term and now for his second [1] [6]. The Associated Press and other outlets maintain promise lists or project‑by‑project trackers but don’t all use identical definitions or counting scopes, so headline “percent kept” figures depend heavily on methodology [2] [1].
2. What the fact‑checkers say about early progress in Trump’s second term
Early reporting emphasizes that many executive actions initiate processes rather than complete promises: PolitiFact notes most early executive orders “don’t keep his promises on their own” and are sometimes only first steps likely to face legal or congressional hurdles [6]. FactCheck.org similarly warns that high‑profile pledges — like $2,000 tariff “dividends” — lack finalized plans and require Congress for execution [3].
3. Concrete numbers and contested claims around tariffs and revenue
Axios and PolitiFact report concrete figures about tariff revenue and the limits of executive power: the Penn Wharton Budget Model estimate cited by Axios puts 2025 tariff revenue around $225 billion, with about $140 billion from emergency tariff orders — but senators and legal constraints affect whether that money can be spent as the president promised [4]. FactCheck explicitly says no formal plan authorizing $2,000 checks has been finalized or approved by Congress [3].
4. Historical context: Trump’s first‑term tally and cross‑presidential comparisons
One analysis cited by The Fulcrum states Trump made about 663 promises in 2016 and had fulfilled roughly 23% by the end of his 2021 term [5]. That figure provides a precedent for measuring a president’s “fulfillment rate,” but available sources do not supply a standardized comparative dataset that places Trump’s multi‑term performance against other presidents using identical counting and rating rules — therefore direct numeric comparisons across presidents are not present in current reporting [5] [1].
5. Why cross‑president comparisons are hard and often misleading
Comparisons require consistent definitions (what counts as a promise), time windows, and whether “in the works” is credit. PolitiFact explicitly applies the same five‑category rubric used for past presidents, which helps comparability, but different outlets and think tanks use divergent lists and thresholds — making single‑number comparisons unreliable unless all trackers use the same criteria [1] [6].
6. Competing viewpoints and political framing
Official White House messaging touts many “Promises Kept,” including regulatory rollbacks and enforcement actions; a White House list claims high counts of fulfilled items [7]. Fact‑checking outlets and opinion pages note gaps or negative consequences — for example, The New York Times editorial argues some economic promises (lower prices) are unmet and that tariffs can raise consumer costs [8]. These items illustrate a predictable tension: administration tallies emphasize executive actions and outcomes they view as wins, while independent fact‑checkers demand legally and practically complete outcomes and legislative implementation [7] [8] [3].
7. What a reader should take away
There are systematic trackers (PolitiFact, AP, FactCheck.org) providing ongoing, categorized assessments of Trump’s promises [1] [2] [3]. Specific numeric claims (tariff revenue, prior‑term fulfillment rates) are available in reporting, but no single authoritative cross‑president fulfillment rate using a unified methodology appears in the provided sources; therefore any direct ranking of Trump versus other presidents based on these materials would be incomplete [4] [5] [1].
Limitations: available sources do not mention a single, standardized dataset that directly compares promise‑fulfillment rates across presidents using identical rules; readers seeking a strict comparison should look for a study that applies one tracking methodology retroactively to multiple presidencies (not found in current reporting) [1] [5].