How does Trump's approval rating compare to that of his immediate predecessors, such as Barack Obama and George W. Bush?

1. Early honeymoon: Obama and Bush posted much higher early approval than Trump

Barack Obama and George W. Bush both recorded very high approval marks in early stretches that many outlets have used for comparison: multiple reports cite Obama near the low‑to‑mid‑60s (around 63–65%) and George W. Bush near 62% at comparable early points in their presidencies, figures journalists use as benchmark “honeymoon” comparisons to later presidents ^{[1] [2]}. By contrast, reporting on Trump’s first 100 days and early 2025 polls placed his approval tens of points below those highs, with several summaries describing his approval as “double digits below Biden, Obama” at that first‑100‑days juncture ^{[1] [3]}.

2. Aggregators and trackers disagree — methodological differences matter

Poll aggregators and trackers present conflicting snapshots. RealClearPolitics’ comparative second‑term averages were cited in a conservative outlet asserting Trump’s second‑term approval “surpasses Obama and Bush” at the same point, reflecting RCP’s averaging approach and the particular polls included ^{[5] [6]}. By contrast, other major trackers and outlets — including The New York Times’ compiled approval data and The Economist’s tracker — show Trump’s approval generally lower relative to recent predecessors and note that his ratings have declined sharply in his second term ^{[7] [8]}. These discrepancies reflect differences in which polls are included, weighting methods, and timing of snapshots — a crucial caveat when comparing presidents across eras ^{[6] [8]}.

3. Mid‑term and later‑year dynamics pulled Trump’s numbers down

Several news organizations reported renewed declines in Trump’s approval through 2025 tied to events and public sentiment: CNN/SSRS, AP‑NORC and outlets such as The Guardian reported drops into the high‑30s (a CNN survey showed a second‑term low of 37% in November reporting) and noted growing percentages saying things are “going badly,” which pushed his net approval lower than many past presidents at similar points ^{[4] [9]}. The Palm Beach Post and regional summaries likewise frame Trump’s 2025 approvals as “among the lowest in modern history,” signaling a downward trajectory compared with benchmark predecessors ^[10].

4. Favorability vs. approval: public feeling about presidents differs from job approval

Longer‑term favorability polls show a different landscape: Gallup found Barack Obama the most favorably rated living president in mid‑2025 (59% favorable) while Donald Trump’s favorability had the largest partisan gap (93% of Republicans favorable vs. 7% of Democrats), illustrating deep polarization that affects approval metrics and complicates straight comparisons of “popularity” across presidents ^[11]. Favorability and approval capture related but distinct sentiments; high early approval (the “honeymoon”) doesn’t always translate into sustained favorability later, and partisan sorting can produce very different numbers for different presidents ^[11].

5. Historical context and caution: apples, oranges, and changing electorates

Historical comparisons require caution: presidents face different media environments, party polarization levels, and external shocks (wars, recessions, scandals), so a straight numerical comparison of a single approval snapshot can mislead. Data compilers such as Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin and The Economist provide long‑run approval series that show wide variance across presidencies and the speed at which public opinion can change — for example, some presidents saw rapid rebounds while others tumbled further over time ^{[12] [8]}. Analysts and outlets therefore stress trendlines and averages rather than single polls when comparing presidents.

6. Bottom line for readers: numbers depend on method and timing

Whether Trump’s approval “compares unfavorably” to Obama and Bush depends on which poll, which moment, and which metric you use: mainstream trackers and numerous news reports document Trump’s approval in 2025 as substantially below the early highs of Obama and Bush ^{[1] [2] [3] [4]}, while some aggregated second‑term averages (as cited by one conservative outlet using RCP) show a different snapshot favoring Trump at a particular second‑term point ^{[5] [6]}. For a robust comparison, consult multiple trackers and focus on trendlines and poll‑aggregate methods rather than single‑poll headlines ^{[6] [8]}.