How do Trump's approval rating trends over his presidency compare to Obama's and George W. Bush's at equivalent points in their presidencies?
Executive summary
Trump’s approval in his second term has trended lower than historical highs and, at several comparable points, is similar to or below Barack Obama’s and George W. Bush’s second‑term levels: RealClearPolitics and news summaries show Trump below a majority and often around the low‑to‑mid‑40s, while reporting cites Obama and Bush registering sub‑50% quarters in their second terms as well [1] [2]. Gallup and contemporary press coverage note Trump’s approval has reached second‑term lows in the high 30s–low 40s at times and that Obama and Bush also dipped below 50% at comparable second‑term quarters [3] [2].
1. What the trackers show at a glance: consistent low‑40s for recent presidents
Polling trackers referenced by multiple outlets aggregate many surveys and show modern presidents commonly cycle through the 40–45% band in mid‑to‑late terms; RealClearPolitics offers a side‑by‑side approval tracker for Trump, Obama and Bush that readers use to compare point‑by‑point across presidencies [1]. The Economist maintains an ongoing Trump approval tracker as well, underscoring that mid‑term and second‑term approval levels often sit well below early‑term peaks [4].
2. Trump’s position compared with Obama and Bush in second terms
Contemporary reporting highlights that Trump’s second‑term approval has been lower than majority support at several measured points and, in some recent quarters, hit second‑term lows in the high 30s (reporting cites a 37% low) with independents driving declines [3] [5]. Journalistic summaries note that Obama and George W. Bush also registered sub‑50% quarterly ratings in their second terms (Obama 44.5% and Bush 43.9% cited for a third‑quarter comparison), showing that Trump’s mid‑to‑late term position is not unique among modern presidents [2].
3. Where the presidents differ: volatility, partisan gaps and peak moments
George W. Bush experienced very high spikes (notably post‑9/11) and later declines; his averages and end‑of‑term numbers differ greatly from those peaks [6]. Obama’s second term saw notable dips tied to policy debates and partisan polarization; press analyses list him among presidents who dropped below 50% in the first six months or later quarters [7]. Trump’s approval shows an unusually large partisan gap in favorability (Gallup documents an 86‑point party gap in favorable ratings for Trump), which makes his approval more stable within party lines but more polarized overall than some predecessors [8].
4. Which metrics matter: point averages vs. quarterly trends
Analysts and pollsters emphasize different summaries: daily averages (RealClearPolitics), rolling poll trackers (The New York Times, The Economist), and quarterly Gallup snapshots. Quarterly Gallup numbers show that presidents can have sub‑50% quarters yet still differ on trajectory; for example, both Bush and Obama had sub‑50% third‑quarter second‑term ratings similar to Trump’s, but their overall paths (recovery, further decline) varied [2]. Comparing a single point to a rolling average can produce different impressions [1] [4] [2].
5. Caveats and limits in the available reporting
Available sources document broad patterns and headline numbers but differ on methodology and exact dates; RealClearPolitics gives averaged polls, Gallup provides telephone‑based quarterly snapshots, and news outlets report both—each yields slightly different percentages [1] [3] [2]. A precise, day‑by‑day alignment of “equivalent points” across presidencies requires choosing identical time anchors (e.g., exact day of second‑term inauguration) and a single polling series; the sources provided do not present a single unified dataset that performs that exact, apples‑to‑apples alignment [1] [3] [2].
6. Competing narratives and implied agendas in coverage
Conservative outlets and commentators sometimes stress that Trump’s second‑term approval “surpasses” Obama and Bush at certain points using RealClearPolitics averages (one commentary claims Trump “most popular second‑term president this century”) while mainstream pollsters and outlets emphasize Trump’s unusually large partisan gap and recurring lows [1] [9] [8]. Readers should note those agendas: aggregated trackers can be framed to emphasize an advantage, while Gallup and other neutral polling reports highlight polarization and low independent support [3] [8].
7. Bottom line for readers wanting an apples‑to‑apples comparison
To draw a strictly equivalent comparison you must pick (a) the same point in each presidency (e.g., same quarter of second term), (b) a single polling series (Gallup, RCP average, NYT tracker), and (c) whether to use daily averages or quarterly snapshots; the sources here show Trump sitting in the low‑to‑mid 40s at several comparable second‑term quarters—numbers that mirror or slightly undercut Obama’s and Bush’s documented sub‑50% second‑term quarters—but they do not provide a single harmonized table that resolves every methodological choice [1] [3] [2].
If you want, I can: (a) pull exact Gallup quarterly numbers for each matching quarter of their second terms, or (b) extract RealClearPolitics day‑by‑day averages for an exact date range so you can see a strict side‑by‑side. Available sources do not mention which specific option you prefer.