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How does the number of unauthorized arrivals under Biden compare to prior administrations (Trump, Obama) on a yearly and per-capita basis?
Executive summary
Counts and measures of “unauthorized arrivals” differ by metric: Border Patrol encounters (apprehensions and expulsions) rose sharply in Biden’s early years compared with Trump’s single term, while total deportations/removals and “returns” increased in some Biden years and can exceed Trump’s totals depending on which categories are counted (e.g., returns, expulsions, removals) [1] [2] [3]. Analysts warn comparisons are complicated by changing policies, data definitions (encounters vs. successful entries), and use of Title 42/parole programs that altered flows and classifications [4] [5] [6].
1. “Approach counts” soared in 2021–23, so encounters under Biden look larger
Border Patrol recorded vastly more encounters during Biden’s first years than during Trump’s term: from Feb. 2021 through Sept. 2024 Border Patrol encounters totaled about 7.2 million, while encounters between Feb. 2017–Jan. 2021 were roughly 1.8 million, illustrating why headline comparisons show far higher “arrivals” under Biden [1]. A House hearing brief cited 3.2 million nationwide encounters just in FY2023 versus roughly 690,000 in 2016, a jump frequently cited by critics [7]. Caveat: “encounters” count attempted crossings and expulsions, not only people who successfully stayed [4] [5].
2. Deportations, removals and “returns” — Biden’s numbers are high but depend on definitions
Several outlets and DHS-derived analyses show that Biden-era enforcement produced large numbers of repatriations and especially “enforcement returns” (voluntary or expedited departures). Migration Policy noted 289,000 enforcement returns in FY2023 — the most since 2010 — and that Biden’s administration has overseen large-scale returns to many countries [2]. News outlets and analysts also report Biden-era repatriations in the millions when including expulsions and Title 42 actions, and some pieces conclude Biden surpassed Trump on some deportation tallies [8] [3] [1]. Which administration “deported more” depends on whether you count returns/expulsions, removals with formal orders, or a broader set of repatriation actions [9] [10].
3. Per-capita framing needs consistent denominators — sources don’t supply a standardized per-capita series
Available reporting focuses on raw encounters and removals by fiscal year or administration; none of the provided sources compute a standardized per-capita (arrivals or removals per 100,000 U.S. residents) comparison across administrations. Migration Policy, Newsweek and The New York Times present annual/fiscal totals and trends but do not normalize them by population in the pieces cited here [2] [11] [3]. Therefore: available sources do not mention a consistent per-capita comparison across Obama, Trump and Biden (not found in current reporting).
4. Policy changes and data breaks make direct year‑by‑year apples‑to‑apples comparisons unreliable
Experts warn that shifts in policy (Title 42 expulsions, parole programs, prosecutorial discretion), and in counting methods (encounters vs. removals, ports-of-entry inadmissibility categories) create breaks that undermine simple comparisons across presidencies [4] [5] [12]. For example, the Biden administration used expanded parole programs that let many enter legally for a time, and continued some pandemic-era expulsions that Trump began — both affect totals and who is classified as an “unauthorized arrival” [6] [2].
5. Independent analyses reach different conclusions depending on metric and timeframe
Nonpartisan fact-checkers and research shops reach divergent emphases: PolitiFact found that overall illegal immigration levels are not higher under Biden than Obama and Trump combined when using comparable Border Patrol-era metrics [4]. By contrast, reporting in The New York Times and Migration Policy show that certain Biden-year deportation/return tallies exceeded Trump’s first-term totals and that encounters reached record levels in 2021–23 [3] [2]. The disagreement stems from metric choice (encounters vs. removals) and the start/end dates used [4] [1].
6. What readers should take away
If your question is strictly “how many times did border agents encounter people,” Biden-era counts are much larger than the Trump-era totals in the sources cited [1] [7]. If your question is “how many people were formally removed or deported,” Biden-era enforcement returns and some removal categories are higher in certain years but totals vary by which dispositions are counted [2] [3]. No single number in the provided reporting settles a tidy year‑by‑year and per‑capita ranking across Obama, Trump and Biden without making explicit choices about which metrics to use — and the sources show those choices materially change conclusions [4] [5].
Limitations: this summary uses only the provided articles and datasets; many cited pieces note methodological caveats and changing definitions that prevent a definitive apples‑to‑apples per‑capita ranking across administrations [4] [5]. If you want, I can produce a table showing annual encounter and removal totals from the cited sources and then compute per‑100,000‑resident rates using U.S. population figures — but that would require you to confirm which specific disposition categories (encounters, removals, returns, expulsions) you want included.