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Fact check: What were the consequences of Donald Trump's false claims during his presidency?
Executive Summary
Donald Trump’s false claims—often described as the “big lie”—had measurable downstream consequences within his supporter base and for the Republican Party’s political trajectory, producing a durable fusion of identity and belief that persisted well beyond the 2020 election. Research shows that identity fusion among Trump supporters made them more likely to internalize and retain these false claims between January 2021 and March 2024, and political scientists have linked that persistence to broader effects on party behavior, electoral dynamics, and U.S. politics going forward [1] [2].
1. How identity fusion hardened beliefs and why that matters
A longitudinal analysis published in PS: Political Science & Politics documents that the stronger the identity fusion between Trump and his supporters, the more those supporters moved from mere sympathy to internalized belief in the big lie; this fusion functioned as a psychological stabilizer for adherents between January 2021 and March 2024. The study treats fusion as a social-psychological bond that makes corrective information less effective because challenges to the leader become existential threats to a fused follower’s sense of self. That dynamic helps explain why debunking and official evidence did not uniformly reduce belief: fusion turned political claims into identity-protective commitments, making the persistence of misinformation a distinct social phenomenon rather than solely an informational failure [1].
2. What the persistence of belief meant for the Republican Party’s shape
Scholars writing in Political Science Quarterly analyze how continued assent to the big lie altered the Republican Party’s internal composition and strategic choices, finding that large majorities of ordinary Republicans and many Trump voters continued to agree with him despite extensive debunking. That ongoing agreement reshaped party incentives: politicians faced trade-offs between condemning falsehoods and retaining a mobilized base that rewarded alignment with Trump’s narrative. The effect was not merely rhetorical; it translated into nominations, messaging strategies, and legislative priorities that accommodated or capitalized on the belief among rank-and-file voters, thereby embedding the big lie into party calculations and affecting candidate vetting and campaign tactics [2].
3. Electoral ripple effects and short-to-medium-term outcomes
Researchers trace electoral consequences through the 2022 cycle and beyond, arguing that belief in the big lie influenced voter turnout patterns, candidate selection, and local primaries in ways that benefited figures who signaled fealty to Trump’s claims. The persistence of these beliefs contributed to shifts in electoral coalitions and candidate platforms, meaning that even where the big lie did not directly determine a result, it shaped the competitive environment by elevating candidates who embraced or did not repudiate the narrative. This translated into observable impacts on primary contests and party endorsements, with implications for the immediate post-2020 electoral map and strategic positioning heading into subsequent cycles [2].
4. Institutional trust and governance consequences
The studies connect the fusion-driven belief in the big lie to broader declines in trust toward electoral institutions and official sources of information, because when a leader’s false claims become identity markers, institutional corrections are less persuasive and institutions lose authority among fused followers. That erosion manifests as increased skepticism toward election officials, courts, and mainstream media among those who internalized the narrative, complicating routine governance functions such as certifying results and enforcing norms. Scholars warn that this dynamic creates a governance vulnerability: when a sizable constituency views institutional actions through a lens of delegitimization, normal dispute-resolution mechanisms are weakened and political friction intensifies [1] [2].
5. Looking forward: party trajectory and the durability of effects
Academic analysis emphasizes that the consequences of the big lie are not simply ephemeral shocks but have the potential to shape party identity and political behavior for years, because fusion-enhanced belief and its institutional effects reinforce each other. The Political Science Quarterly piece highlights that the big lie’s persistence complicates prospects for intra-party correction, reconciliation, or consensus-building, while the PS research provides empirical timing showing belief solidification through March 2024. Together, these findings indicate a durable political transformation: belief persistence among a substantial cohort creates structural incentives for parties and candidates to either accommodate that base or risk alienation, making the long-term political consequences both substantive and institutionally consequential [1] [2].