Is there a chance Trump may be impeached

1. The formal baseline: resolutions on the record

Multiple impeachment resolutions against President Trump have already been introduced in the current Congress, with H.Res.537 and H.Res.353 among the formal texts filed that allege “high crimes and misdemeanors” and lay out proposed articles of impeachment for actions in his second term ^{[1] [2]}, demonstrating that groundwork for impeachment is not merely rhetorical but recorded on the House docket ^[2].

2. Political arithmetic: House control is pivotal

Impeachment begins in the House and requires a simple majority; several outlets report Republicans hold a slim House majority and that Trump and GOP leaders view retaining it in the 2026 midterms as essential to blocking impeachment efforts, with House Speaker Mike Johnson explicitly warning that a Democratic win would increase impeachment risk ^{[4] [5] [7]}.

3. Senate conviction: the high bar that remains

Even if the House impeaches, removal requires a two‑thirds Senate vote — a threshold that has prevented conviction twice before during Trump’s first term and would demand substantial bipartisan defections or a materially changed Senate map to succeed, a reality reflected in contemporaneous reporting and historical precedent ^{[8] [5] [6]}.

4. Pressure from activists, petitions and public opinion

Outside Congress, organized campaigns and advocacy groups have intensified calls for impeachment, with “Impeach Trump Again” and similar petitions collecting signatures and staging actions that aim to translate public outrage into congressional pressure ^{[3] [9]}. Polling cited by activist groups claims majority support among Democrats and notable backing from independents for impeachment in light of alleged constitutional violations, though mainstream reporting also emphasizes that many Democratic leaders are weighing political tradeoffs ^{[3] [10] [11]}.

5. What could tip the scales between now and November

Several contingent factors could raise or lower the probability of impeachment: new, substantive revelations or legal findings could galvanize moderate members to act (coverage notes spikes in speculative betting markets tied to document releases), while a decisive GOP midterm victory would likely close the pathway by keeping the House in Republican hands ^{[6] [4] [5]}. Conversely, high‑profile federal actions, foreign entanglements cited by some House resolutions, or gross abuses documented after January could also increase momentum for an impeachment vote ^{[1] [11]}.

6. Likelihood assessment and competing incentives

Putting these pieces together: the institutional mechanism and active resolutions mean impeachment is plausibly reachable (the probability is meaningfully above zero) but political incentives cut both ways — Democrats fear backlash and prefer electoral strategies while Republicans fear losing midterms and thus publicly frame impeachment as a post‑midterms risk, and the Senate’s two‑thirds requirement makes removal unlikely without extraordinary developments ^{[1] [10] [4] [5] [6]}. Reporting from Reuters, The New York Times, ABC News and others describes a rising clamor and concrete filings but stresses that no serious, full House impeachment inquiry or trial has yet been launched that would make conviction imminent ^{[4] [5] [11] [6]}.

Conclusion

The structural facts are clear: articles exist, activists are mobilizing, and party control of the House after the 2026 midterms is the inflection point that will most determine whether impeachment proceeds; removal, however, remains a steep climb because of the Senate’s supermajority requirement and current partisan realities ^{[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]}. This is a political process — not a foregone legal outcome — and its trajectory will be decided by both new evidence and the results of the 2026 elections ^{[6] [4] [5]}.