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Fact check: Which countries have the highest rates of US deportation in 2025?
Executive Summary
The available analyses indicate that in 2025 the United States’ deportations concentrate heavily on Mexico and three Central American countries — Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador — which together account for more than half of removals and deportation flights [1] [2] [3]. Different datasets emphasize either absolute numbers of people listed for removal or counts of deportation flights, producing slightly different rankings but a consistent Central American focus [4] [3].
1. Why Central America Dominates the Deportation Totals — Big Picture Numbers and Shares
Multiple summaries show the US deportation flow in 2025 is dominated by Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, with those four destinations representing over half of deportations by mid-2025. One source quantified more than 207,000 deportations by June 2025 and stated that Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador comprise a majority share, signaling a sustained operational focus on adjacent and nearby countries [1]. Another dataset places Mexico at 35–40% of total removals, reinforcing its lead as the single largest destination, while the Central American trio collectively accounts for the rest of the majority share [2].
2. Flights Versus People: Two Ways to Count Deportations, Two Different Rankings
Analysts use distinct metrics — number of deportation flights versus number of individuals on removal lists — and those choices change which country appears to “lead.” A flight-count report credits Guatemala with 452 flights during a 12-month period, followed by Honduras and El Salvador, suggesting Guatemala led in operational air deportation volume [3]. By contrast, a January 2025 list of nationals facing deportation counted more individuals from Honduras [5] [6], Guatemala [7] [8], and Mexico [9] [10], placing Honduras at the top when measured by people potentially affected [4].
3. Mexico’s Role: Largest Single Destination by Share, Not Always by Flight Count
Mexico consistently appears as the largest single destination by proportion of overall removals, with one analysis assigning 35–40% of deportations to Mexico, reflecting geography and longstanding US-Mexico repatriation mechanisms [2]. However, flight tallies can downplay Mexico’s lead because many removals to Mexico occur via land or local CBP processes rather than counted international flights, which explains why flight-based reports sometimes list Guatemala as the top destination despite Mexico’s larger share by total removals [3] [2].
4. Honduras and Guatemala: Close Contenders with Different Measures Showing Different Leaders
Honduras and Guatemala trade places depending on the metric: a people-count places Honduras at the top (261,651 nationals on deportation lists) while flight metrics show Guatemala with the most deportation flights [11] in the referenced 12-month period [4] [3]. This divergence highlights operational variations — such as charter flight campaigns and bilateral return agreements — that can temporarily amplify flight counts to certain capitals even when overall nationals removed across all methods may differ [3] [4].
5. Broader Reach: Deportations Increasingly Include Non-American Destinations
Multiple reports note an uptick in removals to countries outside the Americas, with increases to African and Asian countries including a cited 200% rise in flights to India year-over-year, indicating a widening scope of US deportation logistics in 2025 [3]. This expansion suggests policy or enforcement shifts that pair large-scale flight operations with targeted removals to nations with growing numbers of nationals in the US enforcement pipeline, broadening the geographic footprint beyond the Americas [3].
6. Lists Versus Actions: Planned Operations, Final Orders, and the Difference That Matters
One January 2025 report detailing the top 10 countries with nationals facing deportation emphasized planned operations and people with final removal orders, noting over 1.4 million immigrants could be affected under a large operation framework — a different category than executed removals counted midyear [4] [12]. This distinction is crucial: counts of people on deportation lists reflect potential scope, while midyear executed-deportation tallies and flight counts represent realized removals; both are factual but not interchangeable metrics [4] [1].
7. Conflicting Signals, Possible Agendas, and What’s Missing from These Summaries
The sources consistently show a Central American focus but vary by metric and emphasis; flight-centric outlets highlight Guatemala’s operational prominence while population lists stress Honduras or Mexico based on registries of affected nationals [3] [4]. The materials also originate from different organizations that may highlight particular narratives — operational scale, humanitarian impact, or policy targets — and they omit granular context such as removal method breakdowns, asylum case outcomes, or temporal spikes tied to specific enforcement campaigns, limiting full comparison [1] [3].
8. Bottom Line: Who Has the Highest Rates of US Deportation in 2025?
Synthesizing these data: Mexico is the largest single destination by share of deportations, while Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador collectively constitute over half of removals; Guatemala leads in documented deportation flights, and Honduras tops some lists of nationals facing removal depending on counting method [2] [3] [4]. The most accurate answer depends on whether one reports executed removals, flight counts, or nationals on deportation lists — each yields a slightly different ranking but consistently points to a Central American concentration [1] [4].