Fact check: Which countries have seen the largest increase in deportations from the US in 2025?

1. The dominant narrative: Mexico leads, Northern Triangle surges — what the counts say

Multiple 2025 compilations identify Mexico as the largest recipient of US deportations, accounting for roughly a third to 40% of removals, followed by Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador as the next largest destinations; these four recur across datasets as the top increases in 2025 ^{[1] [3]}. Spanish-language reporting that aggregates government and NGO figures places Honduras, Guatemala, and Mexico at the top of "people on the deportation list," with counts in the hundreds of thousands indicating planned or targeted removals rather than immediate returns, which inflates perceived scale if interpreted as completed deportations ^{[4] [5]}. Different metrics—planned lists, completed removals, and flight repatriations—produce different orderings, but Mexico plus the Northern Triangle consistently top the lists.

2. Flight data and operational evidence: Guatemala's spike visible in flights

Operational trackers and NGO flight tallies show Guatemala receiving a disproportionate share of deportation flights in 2025, with one report documenting 452 flights to Guatemala in a 12‑month window, representing nearly 30% of tracked deportation flights; this suggests a concentrated logistical push toward that country even if broader ICE counts show Mexico with the largest overall removals ^[2]. Flight logs capture a specific operational channel—scheduled repatriation flights—which can diverge from ICE’s overall removal tallies because some removals occur at land ports or via chartered third‑country transfers. Counting flights highlights operational emphasis but does not automatically equate to total people removed, requiring cross‑referencing with ICE data ^[3].

3. ICE removals and arrest tallies: confirming Mexico’s primacy in enforcement data

ICE datasets and compilations that draw on federal enforcement counts show Mexico receiving the greatest number of removals and being the largest share of arrests and deportations in 2025, with cited arrest counts for Mexican nationals far outstripping other countries in FY2024 and continuing into 2025 trends ^{[6] [1]}. Statistical outlets summarizing ICE releases give Mexico roughly 35–40% of total removals, while the Northern Triangle collectively accounts for a sizable minority, indicating a two‑tier pattern: Mexico as the single largest country, Northern Triangle countries as a concentrated regional increase. Federal enforcement tallies reinforce Mexico’s primacy but also confirm significant upward movement to Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador.

4. Lists vs. removals: large “on‑list” figures can mislead about realized deportations

Several reports cite very large numbers of nationals “on the US deportation list” for 2025—Honduras, Guatemala, and Mexico each appearing with six‑figure counts—yet these figures reflect targets, pending cases, or administrative lists rather than verified completed removals, so they risk overstating short‑term deportation flows if treated as instantaneous removals ^{[4] [5]}. Government and media outlets sometimes conflate lists, planned operations, and carried‑out removals; as a result, apparent large increases can reflect policy announcements or intended operations rather than proportional increases in completed returns, complicating cross‑source comparison ^[4].

5. Third‑country removals and new operational tactics that complicate country tallies

Reporting on the Trump administration’s use of third‑country removals—returns to countries other than the migrant’s origin or last habitual residence—shows new destinations (for example, Panama, Costa Rica, eSwatini, South Sudan) appearing in 2025 enforcement narratives, which can redistribute counts away from origin countries and obscure who is being removed ^[7]. Sources documenting third‑country transfers frame them as policy shifts; however, these moves are not uniformly represented across datasets, meaning standard country-of-citizenship tallies may undercount or misattribute removals if third‑country admissions are not tracked in the same reporting streams ^[7].

6. Conflicting agendas: how source orientation shapes reported emphasis

Governmental and enforcement‑focused outlets emphasize scale and logistics of removal operations and often foreground Mexico and Northern Triangle volumes to signal operational success, while NGO and regional outlets emphasize humanitarian impacts and may highlight flight counts to Guatemala or large lists of affected nationals to underline community effects ^{[3] [2] [4]}. Sources tied to political narratives about border policy may amplify planned deportation figures or present selective operational metrics to support broader arguments; analysts must therefore triangulate ICE removal tallies, flight logs, and NGO monitoring to construct a coherent picture ^{[6] [2]}.

7. Bottom line and evidence gaps: what is established and what still needs verification

Across diverse 2025 sources, the best‑supported conclusion is that Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador have experienced the largest increases in removals from the US in 2025, with Mexico the largest single destination and the Northern Triangle showing substantial increases; data sources differ by metric and timeframe, producing variation in absolute figures ^{[1] [3] [2]}. Key gaps remain: harmonized counts of completed removals versus planned deportation lists, transparent accounting of third‑country transfers, and standardized timeframes. Closing those gaps requires cross‑referencing ICE statistics, flight logs, and NGO monitoring to produce a definitive country‑by‑country ranking.