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Are there credible estimates supporting the claim that 20 million people entered the U.S. illegally under Biden?
Executive Summary
The claim that 20 million people entered the U.S. illegally under President Biden is not supported by credible, published estimates; government encounter data and independent research point to far lower totals and substantial uncertainty about how many unique individuals remain in the country [1] [2]. Major fact-checks and demographic research place the unauthorized resident population well below 20 million, and CBP encounter totals include repeats, expulsions, and administrative categories that do not equate to 20 million new residents [3] [4]. This analysis extracts the claim, compares available datasets and expert estimates, and explains why the 20 million figure overstates and misinterprets the evidence while identifying the gaps that produce legitimate uncertainty [5] [6].
1. What proponents say — the 20 million assertion and its origins
The central claim circulating is that 20 million people entered the U.S. illegally during the Biden presidency, often framed as cumulative “entries” or “gotaways” since January 2021. Supporters cite large CBP encounter totals and extrapolated “gotaway” figures to inflate a cumulative count. Official-source summaries and partisan fact sheets report high encounter numbers—often mixing apprehensions, expulsions, and inadmissibles—then combine them with estimated “gotaways” to approach larger totals. However, these calculations typically conflate distinct CBP categories and count multiple encounters by the same individuals, which inflates any simple summation [7] [2]. Independent fact-checks have repeatedly flagged this aggregation as misleading [3].
2. What the government data actually show and why raw totals mislead
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) publishes encounters—a term that covers apprehensions, inadmissible encounters, expulsions, and known “gotaways” estimates—but does not provide a clean count of unique individuals who “entered and stayed.” Fiscal-year totals since FY2021 show millions of encounters (CBP reported roughly 10.8 million total encounters since FY2021 in some summaries), but these figures include repeat crossers, people turned back under Title 42 or other policies, and those removed or expelled [2] [8]. Counting each encounter as a distinct new resident incorrectly equates enforcement contacts with net unauthorized migration and produces an inflated impression compared with what actually settled in the U.S. [1] [6].
3. Independent estimates of unauthorized residents contradict 20 million
Demographic research and think-tank estimates place the total unauthorized population in the United States at figures significantly below 20 million. Recent analyses by organizations such as the Migration Policy Institute and Pew Research Center estimate the unauthorized population in ranges that peak well under 17 million, with many credible assessments clustering between roughly 10.9 million and 16.8 million [4]. These figures measure people living in the country without authorization, not cumulative border encounters; they account for emigration, deaths, legalization, and interior enforcement. Because these population estimates count residents rather than encounters, they directly contradict the notion that 20 million new unauthorized entrants arrived and remained under the Biden administration [4].
4. Why simple summation of encounters produces the 20 million myth
The methodology producing a 20 million figure typically adds apprehensions, expulsions, releases, and “gotaway” estimates across multiple years without deduplicating repeat crossings or accounting for removals and returns. CBP and analysts note that “encounters” can include the same person multiple times in different months or years, and many encounters end in expulsion or removal rather than settlement [2] [8]. Several authoritative fact-checks and data reviews demonstrate that credible accounting requires deduplication and an understanding of interior outcomes—steps missing from the 20 million arithmetic [1] [5]. Consequently, the 20 million claim misapplies enforcement tallies to estimate net unauthorized inflow.
5. Remaining uncertainties, where genuine data gaps exist, and how they’re used politically
Legitimate uncertainty remains about the precise number of “gotaways” and how many encounters translate into long-term unauthorized residency because CBP has limited ways to track individuals who evade detection or later interior migration patterns. Estimates of gotaways vary, and some advocacy or policy groups produce higher projections; however, higher gotaway estimates still do not bridge the gap to 20 million when adjusted for repeats and removals [5] [2]. Political actors often emphasize the largest possible headline number to advance policy positions; this is notable on both sides of the debate, with partisan fact sheets and White House briefings highlighting different metrics to frame the issue [7] [9]. Recognizing those agendas clarifies why disputed arithmetic persists despite lower independent estimates [3] [1].