How large is currently the popularity of the Democrats?
Executive summary
Democratic popularity in late 2025–early 2026 is a study in contrasts: party favorability and brand image are weak in many national measures, while voting intentions and enthusiasm polls show Democrats holding modest to substantial electoral advantages in generic ballots and party ID [1] [2] [3]. Different reputable surveys offer divergent snapshots—some show record-low favorability for the Democratic Party [2] [1], while others find Democrats leading the 2026 generic congressional ballot and enjoying higher turnout enthusiasm [3] [4] [5].
1. Favorability: a low brand score for Democrats
Multiple national polls report that the Democratic Party’s favorability is unusually weak: Quinnipiac found just 30% of voters with a favorable view and 54% unfavorable, marking one of the lowest readings the poll has recorded [1], and Gallup reported a record-low favorable score for the party and noted that independents’ evaluations were especially poor [2]. These favorability metrics suggest a broadly negative image among the electorate even as other measures point toward electoral competitiveness [2] [1].
2. Vote intention: generic ballots often tilt toward Democrats
Contrasting the weak brand numbers, several recent generic-ballot and congressional-intent polls show Democrats with a durable advantage: Marquette found 49% of registered voters expecting to vote for a Democrat in 2026 congressional contests versus 44% for Republicans [6], Marist reported a 14-point Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot and 55% support for the Democratic candidate in respondents’ districts [3], and other trackers (Strength in Numbers/Verasight and G. Elliott Morris) show small but steady Democratic leads in house vote intention [5] [7]. These findings point to a disconnect between party image and immediate vote choice.
3. Enthusiasm and turnout dynamics favor Democrats in some polls
Enthusiasm and likelihood-to-vote measures reinforce the Democrats’ electoral position in certain surveys: Reuters/Ipsos found 44% of self-identified Democrats “very enthusiastic” about voting in 2026 compared with 26% of Republicans [4], and Marquette reported higher certainty to vote among Democrats than among 2024 Republican voters [6]. Higher Democratic enthusiasm could amplify modest leads on generic ballots into electoral gains, but turnout models and district-level maps—which vary by state—remain decisive [3] [6].
4. Where the data diverge: interpretation, methodology and timing
Polls diverge because they measure different things at different times: favorability gauges broad sentiment (where Democrats look weak in Gallup and Quinnipiac) while generic ballots and party identification capture near-term vote choice and enthusiasm (where Democrats often lead) [2] [1] [3]. Methodological choices—question wording, whether respondents are “registered voters” or “likely voters,” and experimental prompts (like reminding voters which party controls Congress)—shift results enough to create varying narratives, as shown by experiments that slightly widen the Democratic generic-edge when respondents are reminded Republicans control Congress [5].
5. Political context, caveats and competing narratives
Contextual factors complicate a simple assessment: mainstream outlets and analysts note Democrats face an uphill map for the Senate despite down-ballot advantages and that Republican strategists remain confident in parts of the country [8] [9]. Polls also show internal pressure on Democratic leaders—large shares of voters want new moderate figures (Harvard/Harris), suggesting vulnerability on messaging even where electoral intent favors the party [10]. Finally, the reporting pool is limited to the supplied sources; other national or state polls not in this set could alter the assessment if consulted.