What are the latest statewide and district-level poll results for the December 2, 2025 special elections?
Executive summary
Available reporting identifies a December 2, 2025 special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District and notes at least one competitive House special nationwide; contemporaneous statewide poll compendia and local poll stories are limited in the provided sources (Tennessee special election date and district partisan lean cited) [1]. Newsweek and Ballotpedia summaries show polling indicating a closer-than-expected contest in TN-07, with some polls giving Republican Matt Van Epps modest leads over Democrat Aftyn Behn weeks before the vote [2] [3].
1. What races are actually set for December 2, 2025 — the short list
The primary special election explicitly scheduled for December 2, 2025 in the provided material is Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District to fill a vacancy; Wikipedia’s timeline entry states that the Tennessee special election “will be held on December 2, 2025” [1]. Ballotpedia and other calendars compiled 2025 special-election timing across states but the specific December 2 listing in these sources centers on the Tennessee contest [3] [4].
2. Polling snapshot for Tennessee’s 7th: a competitive race where analysts expected a GOP edge
Newsweek’s reporting — summarizing public and private poll releases as of Nov. 25, 2025 — described Tennessee’s 7th as “closer-than-expected” given its conservative history; it cited multiple polls including Workbench Strategies and Impact Research that put Republican Matt Van Epps about eight points ahead of Democrat Aftyn Behn (52% to 44%) in earlier October surveys [2]. Ballotpedia’s overview notes heavy media attention and that candidates led in endorsements and polling at various points, and it documents the broader context of runoffs and special contests in the 2025 cycle [3].
3. How “closer-than-expected” is measured — historical baseline and Cook PVI
Context matters: Tennessee’s 7th voted for Donald Trump by more than 22 points in 2024 and has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of about R+10, signaling a strong Republican baseline that makes a narrow pre-election margin notable [1]. Newsweek frames polling that narrows that historical gap as evidence Democrats could make the race competitive, even if several polls still showed a Van Epps lead [2].
4. What statewide poll trackers are doing — availability limits in provided sources
Comprehensive poll-aggregation services such as RealClearPolling list “latest polls” pages and are typical go-to sources for statewide and district-level polling compilations, but the provided RealClearPolling link is a generic landing page and does not contain a specific December 2 special-election poll table in the material supplied here [5]. The AP, NBC, Fox, PBS and others covered 2025 election results and specific statewide contests around November 4, 2025, yet the supplied snippets focus largely on the November special and general results and California measures rather than on updated December 2 special-election polling [6] [7] [8] [9].
5. What the sources explicitly report — agreement and limits
Newsweek explicitly reports district-level poll numbers for TN-07 and characterizes the race as tighter than partisan history suggests, citing several pollsters and placing Van Epps ahead in multiple surveys [2]. Ballotpedia and Wikipedia corroborate that Tennessee’s 7th special election is scheduled for December 2 and highlight the district’s Republican lean [3] [1]. However, broader statewide or district-level poll compilations for other December 2 special elections are not present in the set of sources provided [5] [6].
6. Alternate viewpoints and caveats readers should know
Polls in special elections and low-turnout contests are often volatile; The New York Times and other outlets (in the supplied set) have noted frequent polling misses in municipal and primary settings earlier in 2025, which is relevant background when a late-November poll shows a “closer-than-expected” result [10]. The sources here do not provide a comprehensive set of all December 2 poll releases, and they do not include final outcome reporting for that date within the supplied snippets — available sources do not mention final December 2 results or a complete poll aggregation across all jurisdictions [6] [7] [8].
7. Bottom line for readers wanting to track December 2 contests
Based on the supplied reporting, Tennessee’s 7th is the marquee December 2 special election; pre-election polls cited by Newsweek showed Republican leads but described the race as unusually close given the district’s R+10 baseline [2] [1]. For a full, up-to-the-minute statewide and district-level poll compendium you should consult poll-aggregation pages (RealClear, FiveThirtyEight) and election-night trackers (AP, NBC, local secretaries of state) — those outlets are referenced among the supplied sources but the specific December 2 polling tables or post-election certainties are not included in the current set of documents [5] [6] [7] [11].
If you want, I can pull the latest live poll aggregates and post-election returns from AP, RealClear, Ballotpedia or the Tennessee Secretary of State pages — tell me which specific district[12] or state polls you want summarized and I’ll return a sourced update.