Are there demographic or geographic breakdowns of the December 2, 2025 special election polls showing coalition strengths?

1. What the record shows about special elections in 2025 — the basic calendar and context

Journalistic trackers and reference pages list six federal special elections in 2025 and note at least one special election scheduled for December 2 in Tennessee, alongside several state legislative special elections that used December 2 runoffs where no candidate won a majority ^{[1] [4]}. Ballotpedia and 270toWin catalogue the sequence of special elections through the year and flag that some contests require runoffs, which can complicate turnout and polling interpretation ^{[5] [4]}.

2. Where reporters and pollsters publish demographic breakdowns — typical outlets and what they covered in 2025

When journalists supply demographic or geographic breakdowns, they lean on large coordinated voter surveys or exit polls. The Associated Press ran a Voter Poll surveying more than 17,000 voters in New Jersey, Virginia, California and New York City and published group‑level results (age, religion, etc.) for those contests in 2025 ^[2]. CNN’s exit‑poll portal offers cross‑tabs for races it studies, noting methodology (SSRS Voter Poll and in‑person interviews) and how to read columns showing group sizes in the electorate ^[3]. National outlets such as AP, CNN and network exit‑poll products are therefore the most likely place to find coalition breakdowns — but the available sources do not show these tools reporting a December 2 Tennessee special‑election breakdown ^{[2] [3]}.

3. What’s missing for the December 2 special election specifically

The provided set of documents does not include any item that publishes demographic or sub‑county geographic polling for the December 2, 2025 special election. Wikipedia and Ballotpedia list the December 2 date and catalogue contests and runoffs but do not carry coalition polling cross‑tabs ^{[1] [5]}. National exit‑poll projects (AP, CNN) produced extensive cross‑tabs for the major November contests, but available reporting excerpts do not mention a December 2 special election breakdown in their publicized 2025 products ^{[2] [3]}. Therefore: available sources do not mention demographic/geographic polling tables for that specific special election.

4. How journalists typically build “coalition strength” breakdowns — methods and limits

When outlets publish coalition breakdowns they combine pre‑election polls, in‑person precinct surveys and post‑vote weighting to match known turnout; AP’s Voter Poll combined online, telephone and in‑person election‑day interviews to build representative samples and reported group shares for its featured states and cities ^[2]. Network exit‑polls (CNN) similarly mix methodologies and emphasize weighting and margin uncertainty ^[3]. Those methods require sufficiently large samples in the contest area; single special elections or low‑turnout runoffs often yield small subgroup samples that make precise cross‑tabs unreliable unless supplemented with targeted oversamples — a constraint recognized in coverage of many off‑cycle or special contests ^{[3] [2]}.

5. Where you can look next for the breakdowns you want

To find coalition breakdowns for a December 2 special election, check the AP Voter Poll pages and CNN exit‑poll center for post‑election releases, and Ballotpedia/270toWin for links to local or syndicated polling ^{[2] [3] [4]}. If networks or AP did not field an in‑place exit poll for that particular contest, local media, state boards of elections or campaign data releases (polls or internal cross‑tabs) are the likeliest alternate sources — but those items are not present in the materials you provided ^{[1] [5]}.

6. Caveats and competing perspectives you should weigh

National exit‑polls and large voter surveys offer strong comparative data across contests, but they tend to focus resources on larger, higher‑profile races; that produces a coverage bias favoring November general contests over late runoffs or single congressional/state special elections ^{[2] [3]}. Local pollsters or campaign internal polls may supply subgroup cross‑tabs for a special election, but such internal data can reflect partisan sampling choices and are not equivalent to neutral exit‑polls or large public surveys (available sources do not mention a specific December 2 internal poll). Always compare methodology (sample size, weighting) before drawing firm conclusions from any “coalition strength” table ^{[3] [2]}.

If you want, I can search the AP Voter Poll pages, CNN exit‑poll archives, Ballotpedia, and local Tennessee outlets in the sources you have available and report back with any published cross‑tabs or, if none exist, suggest how to construct a reasonable estimate from public precinct returns and demographic census data.