Polling results for December 2 2025 special election candidates

1. What the schedule and candidates are — the basic facts

Multiple public trackers list Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District special election for December 2, 2025, to replace Republican Mark Green, and identify the contest as the year’s final House special election; Ballotpedia explicitly notes Tennessee’s 7th is scheduled for that date ^{[3] [1]}. Politico’s reporting names the major nominees active in the contest: Democrat Aftyn Behn and Republican Matt Van Epps, and frames the race as notable because the district voted heavily for Donald Trump in 2024 ^[2].

2. What polling is reported in the reporting you provided

The clearest polling figures in the supplied sources come from internal Democratic polls referenced by Politico, which place Behn about 8 to 10 points behind Van Epps — a margin Democrats characterize as “striking distance” in a Trump‑leaning district ^[2]. No publicly released, independent poll numbers or multi‑poll averages for the December 2 special election appear in the provided sources; Ballotpedia and the Wikipedia pages enumerate the election schedule but do not provide detailed public polling data for the match‑up ^{[3] [1]}.

3. How news outlets frame the race and the competing narratives

Politico frames the race as one Republicans are nervous about because Thanksgiving timing could suppress turnout, while Democrats see a pathway in a district Trump carried by more than 20 points — the narrative emphasizes both Republican structural advantage and Democratic optimism based on internal polling and national party attention ^[2]. Wikipedia and Ballotpedia present neutral factual context — dates, vacancy reason, and that it’s among the final special elections of the year — without editorial framing ^{[1] [3]}.

4. Limits of the available reporting — what’s missing or uncertain

The sources provided do not include publicly released, third‑party or national poll aggregates, no precinct‑level turnout models for Dec. 2, and no post‑publication, certified vote totals for the special election; therefore definitive conclusions about the margin or outcome cannot be drawn from these materials alone ^{[2] [3]}. If you are seeking current public polls, vote counts, or race calls, the supplied sources do not contain those; they mainly confirm the date, candidates, and examples of internal Democratic polling ^{[1] [2]}.

5. How to interpret the internal polling cited by campaigns

Politico reports Democrats’ internal polling showing Behn within 8–10 points, and the DNC has mounted some campaign activity there — internal polls are useful signals of campaign confidence and targeting but historically can differ from independent polls and final results; neither Ballotpedia nor Wikipedia provide validating public polls to corroborate the internals in the supplied material ^{[2] [3]}. Campaign‑commissioned polling often uses targeted likely‑voter screens and weighting choices that can skew margins versus nonpartisan surveys; the provided reporting notes the internals but does not publish methodology details ^[2].

6. Broader context from other 2025 special elections and timing

The Tennessee 7th contest is described as the last special election of 2025 and sits in a calendar crowded with earlier special and off‑year races (Florida, Arizona, Texas, Virginia etc.), which may affect national party resource allocation and media attention ^{[1] [3]}. National outlets covering 2025 elections emphasize that off‑cycle timing and local factors — including holiday scheduling — have shifted turnout dynamics in other contests this year, a context Politico invokes in discussing Republican concerns about turnout ^{[1] [2]}.

7. What to watch next and recommended sources to confirm live results

To move beyond the internal polling snapshot in Politico, check Ballotpedia for candidate lists and election mechanics, and watch major vote‑tracking outlets such as AP, PBS, and state election officials for certified results and public polling releases; the provided sources point to Ballotpedia and AP as places that regularly update results and schedules ^{[3] [4]}. For final certified tallies or any publicly released independent polls, consult the Tennessee Secretary of State or AP’s election pages — those specific final numbers are not present in the supplied documents ^{[4] [3]}.

Limitations: The supplied reporting includes internal Democratic poll figures but not independent, publicly released polls or certified vote totals for the December 2 special election; conclusions beyond what those sources state would require further public polling or official results ^{[2] [3]}.