How have margins in the December 2 special election polls shifted over the past month?
Executive summary
Polling coverage of the December 2 special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District shows the race tightening from larger GOP margins earlier in the fall to a near-tie in late-November: an Emerson College/Hill poll conducted Nov. 22–24 found Republican Matt Van Epps ahead 48% to 46% (2-point margin) with 5% undecided and a +/-3.9-point credibility interval [1]. Earlier public polling threads referenced by reporting showed Van Epps holding larger leads (e.g., an 8-point Workbench Strategies result cited in Newsweek), indicating a measurable shift toward competitiveness over the past month [2].
1. Tightening numbers: late-November poll shows a near tie
The most concrete, recent public poll in the available reporting is the Emerson College/The Hill survey (Nov. 22–24), which reports Van Epps 48% and Aftyn Behn 46% among likely voters, with 2% for other candidates and 5% undecided; the sample was 600 likely voters with a credibility interval of +/-3.9 points [1]. That places the race effectively tied within the poll’s sampling uncertainty and signals that the seat — which Trump carried comfortably in prior cycles — has become competitive [1].
2. Earlier polls showed larger GOP leads — direction of movement
Newsweek’s summary of polling history notes a Workbench Strategies poll showing Van Epps up 8 points (52% to 44%) and describes Van Epps as having “held a polling lead over Behn throughout the campaign,” though it also highlights the race’s narrowing as Election Day approaches [2]. Taken together with the Emerson result, the available reporting documents movement from roughly a mid-single-digit GOP advantage toward a 1–2 point margin in late November [2] [1].
3. What reporters attribute the shift to — turnout and motivation dynamics
Newsweek’s coverage cites turnout motivation differences as part of the explanation: that Democrats were reporting higher “extremely motivated” levels (83% vs. Republicans’ 71% in the poll it discusses), a factor reporters say could narrow margins in a district Trump carried by about 22 points in the prior presidential cycle [2]. The Emerson write-up also frames the race as tighter than expected given the district’s recent partisan lean, suggesting increased Democratic mobilization and campaign activity may be affecting margins [1].
4. Poll methodology and caution about interpreting short-term movement
The Emerson poll’s sample size (n=600) and credibility interval (+/-3.9 points) mean small shifts from one poll to another can be within expected sampling variability; the Workbench and Emerson numbers differ by amounts that are marginally larger than or similar to typical MOEs reported, so some apparent narrowing could be statistical noise as much as a real trend [1] [2]. Reporters themselves emphasize competitiveness but note uncertainty given typical poll variance [1] [2].
5. What’s missing from the available reporting
Available sources do not mention a full time series of polls across the entire past month (daily or weekly trackers), nor do they provide raw cross-tabs showing which demographics drove the shift; the only specific recent poll disclosed is Emerson (Nov. 22–24) and Newsweek references an earlier Workbench result and an October survey with a 700 likely-voter sample [1] [2]. Because the curated results are sparse, we cannot quantify the week-by-week margin change beyond the examples cited [1] [2].
6. Competing interpretations and implicit agendas in coverage
Newsweek frames the narrowing as evidence Democrats could flip a historically GOP district and highlights Democratic motivation figures, which aligns with a narrative of Democratic momentum after November results [2]. Emerson’s reporting focuses on the statistical closeness without predicting outcome [1]. Readers should note outlets may emphasize different implications — Newsweek on partisan stakes and momentum, Emerson on poll detail and uncertainty — and that political actors routinely release or highlight polls favorable to their cause [2] [1].
7. What to watch in the final days before Dec. 2
Given the Emerson poll’s 5% undecided and the credibility interval, late-deciding voters and turnout operations could determine the final margin; reporters note early voting periods concluded Nov. 12–26, meaning final turnout models will be decisive [1] [3]. Further public polls or post-election returns will be needed to confirm whether the late-November tightening represented real change or sampling variation [1] [2].