Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
Predictions and polls for December 2025 special election
Executive Summary
The claim that there are “predictions and polls for [a] December 2025 special election” is partially supported: multiple referenced summaries confirm several special elections scheduled for December 2025 including Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District on December 2, 2025, and other state-level contests, but the provided materials do not consistently present concrete, contemporaneous public-opinion polls or agreed predictions for that December date; instead they list schedules, candidates, and historical context which may be used to inform but do not constitute formal forecasts [1] [2] [3] [4]. The documentation is uneven across sources: some note potential competitiveness because of changed district composition, while others focus on administrative election dates and results reporting timelines rather than on predictive polling [2] [5].
1. Election is on the calendar, but predictions are thin — what the records actually show
The aggregated materials uniformly record that special elections are taking place in December 2025, with Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District set for December 2, 2025, to fill the vacancy from Rep. Mark Green’s July 20, 2025 resignation; Ballotpedia-style compilations and election calendars document these scheduled contests but stop short of publishing systematic polling-based predictions [1] [3]. The available analyses emphasize administrative preparations, candidate lists, and past special election outcomes rather than providing contemporaneous, methodologically transparent polls or modeled forecasts for the December contests; therefore, while the calendar fact is established, the assertion that there are established “predictions and polls” available for those December contests is not corroborated by these materials [3] [4].
2. Candidate fields and demographics explain why predictions would be attractive, yet are absent
Sources identify principal candidates in the Tennessee 7th race — Aftyn Behn (D) and Matt Van Epps (R) — plus four independents, and note that redistricting and demographic shifts have injected uncertainty into a seat traditionally held by Republicans, creating the conditions under which pollsters and forecasters would typically issue predictions [2]. The documentation highlights the district’s changed boundaries and the presence of competitive candidates, explaining why analysts and the public expect polling; however, the specific packet of source analyses provided here does not include poll results, modeled probabilities, or expert consensus ratings for the December contests, meaning any claim that robust predictions exist in this corpus is overstated [2] [4].
3. Administrative reporting and certification timelines muddy the impression of “December results”
Some sources emphasize administrative timelines — for example, certification and final result release dates tied to November 4, 2025 special or general elections — which can create confusion when discussing December special elections: several documents pertain to November 2025 contests, certification on December 2, or runoff scheduling rather than to standalone December polling reports [5] [6] [4]. This conflation of calendar events with poll reporting leads to a misimpression that prediction content exists for December races when in fact some materials simply reference result-certification dates or post-election administrative deadlines, not pre-election polls or predictive analyses for a December special election [5] [7].
4. Multiple sources provide context but vary in focus and completeness
The set of analyses includes Ballotpedia-style listings and election result roundups which are strong on candidate lists and historical precedent but weak on forward-looking predictive polling [3] [4]. AP-style and government pages in the dataset focus on impartial reporting of schedules, results, and procedures and explicitly lack editorial polling predictions in these excerpts [8] [6]. The materials therefore offer complementary but incomplete views: they verify which special elections occur and who’s running, and they outline how results will be reported or certified, but they do not present a coherent set of contemporaneous polls or aggregated forecast probabilities for the December contests [2] [4].
5. Bottom line for consumers: calendar confirmed, polls/predictions not present in these files
For anyone seeking an authoritative answer, the documentation here confirms the existence and candidates of December 2025 special elections (notably Tennessee’s 7th on December 2), but the claim that the provided sources contain published predictions or polling for those December races is not supported by the excerpts supplied: they contain schedules, candidate rosters, and contextual analysis but lack explicit poll data or consensus forecasts [1] [2] [3] [4]. Voters and analysts should therefore treat assertions of published December predictions as unverified within this packet and seek out contemporaneous polling releases or forecaster models from pollsters, major newsrooms, or aggregators if they require explicit probability-based forecasts.