How do Democratic and Republican states compare in terms of murder rates?
This fact-check may be outdated. Consider refreshing it to get the most current information.
Executive summary
Across multiple analyses, murder rates measured at the state level have tended to be higher in Republican (so-called "red") states than in Democratic ("blue") states throughout the 21st century, but that headline masks important methodological choices and competing interpretations about why the gap exists and where lethal violence is concentrated [1] [2]. When researchers or reporters shift the geographic unit of analysis to cities or counties, the pattern can flip or look more mixed — large, Democratic-run cities account for many high local homicide rates even while many red states show higher statewide averages [2] [3].
1. State-level data: a consistent “red-state” gap
Several think tanks and policy groups have documented that, on average, states that vote Republican have had higher per-capita murder rates than Democratic-voting states for years; Third Way’s analyses conclude that red-state murder rates have been higher every year this century and found a persistent gap—about one-third higher in recent years—between red and blue states [1] [4]. The Manhattan Institute brief confirms that at the state level “Republican states are clearly more violent,” and stresses that the signal is robust to some adjustments but sensitive to others [2]. Local reporting using police aggregates also found police agencies in Republican-governed states recorded murder rates nearly 32% higher than those in Democratic-governed states in one analysis [5].
2. City- and county-level findings complicate the story
Those state-level headlines break down when the unit of analysis changes: county- and city-level studies show that many of the nation’s highest homicide rates are in individual cities, including Democratic-run cities, and commentators on the right point to blue-city concentration as proof that partisan governance matters at the municipal level [2] [3]. Axios reported that in 2024 a majority of cities with the highest homicide rates were located in Republican-run states, while other research of 400 medium and large cities found mayoral party affiliation made little difference to crime rates when analyzed over decades [3] [6]. Visual rankings of top cities by homicide rate underscore that extreme city-level hotspots can distort perceptions of broader state patterns [7].
3. Why results differ: measurement choices and causal claims
Scholars and analysts emphasize that seemingly minor research decisions—whether to analyze states, counties, or cities, which years to compare, and whether to control for demographics or policing—drive divergent conclusions, meaning partisan narratives often reflect those methodological choices rather than settled causation [2]. Third Way argues state laws and long-term structural factors help explain red-state concentration of homicides, while critics note that excluding large Democratic cities from red-state totals can materially change the gap, a point raised by Manhattan Institute and county-level commentators [1] [2].
4. What the evidence does and does not prove about policy or responsibility
The empirical literature and reporting do not deliver a single, unambiguous policy verdict: some researchers and outlets link higher state-level murder rates to factors associated with Republican policy choices (for example, lower spending on social services or laxer gun laws in some states, as argued by Third Way and other commentators), while others caution that local conditions, policing practices, and concentrated urban violence matter more and that mayoral party affiliation explains little in many city-level studies [1] [6]. The Manhattan Institute explicitly recommends shifting debate from partisan labels to specific policies because different analytical frames yield different answers [2].
5. Bottom line
At the state level, multiple independent analyses report that red/Republican states have had higher murder rates than blue/Democratic states in recent decades, but that empirical fact coexists with important qualifiers: the pattern changes by geographic scale, year, and control variables, and city-level analyses show substantial violence concentrated in specific municipalities irrespective of state partisan control [1] [2] [3] [6]. Reported differences in framing often reflect partisan narratives and the incentives of advocacy groups and media outlets to highlight either blue-city hotspots or red-state statewide averages, so policy conclusions require careful attention to methodology rather than raw partisan labels [2] [8].