What demographic groups accounted for most of the drop in turnout between 2020 and 2024?
Executive summary
The modest drop in turnout from 66% in 2020 to roughly 64–65% in 2024 was driven most by younger voters and by declines among people of color—especially Hispanic voters—with smaller but meaningful declines among Black and Asian American groups depending on the data source; older voters (65+) bucked the trend and actually increased participation [1] [2] [3]. Measurement differences across validated voter files, exit polls and survey panels mean the precise share attributable to each group varies, but the weight of multiple analyses points to youth and Hispanic declines as the largest contributors to the aggregate falloff [3] [2] [4].
1. Youth turnout: the single biggest demographic swing
Young people (roughly ages 18–29) turned out at substantially lower rates in 2024 than in 2020, with CIRCLE’s voter-file estimates putting youth turnout at about 47% in 2024 versus roughly 50% in 2020—an approximately three-point drop that, because of the size of the cohort and their historically lower baseline turnout, accounts for a large portion of the overall decline [3]. Multiple organizations also note that young men and white youth shifted more heavily toward the Republican candidate in 2024 and that lower turnout among younger voters amplified those political consequences, underscoring that the youth slump was both a numeric and partisan driver of the changed electorate [5] [3].
2. Hispanic turnout: the largest racial-ethnic decline in many tabulations
National summaries show Hispanic turnout fell more than other racial groups in percentage-point terms, with USAFacts reporting a 3.1-point decline to a 50.6% turnout rate in 2024—the largest drop among the major racial and ethnic groups measured—and Pew and other analysts linking Hispanic shifts to both turnout changes and partisan movement that benefitted Republicans [2] [6]. Navigator and GZERO reporting also document large swings in Hispanic vote choice and gendered differences within the group that magnified the political impact of turnout declines, especially among younger and male Hispanic voters [7] [8].
3. Black and Asian turnout: small declines with outsized political effects
Analysts differ on magnitude but agree Black and Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) turnout fell modestly from 2020 to 2024; USAFacts shows Black turnout down about three points while Catalist finds Black and AAPI turnout down only one to two points [2] [4]. Even small percentage drops among these groups can have outsized political consequences in battleground states where they are concentrated, and multiple reports emphasize that changes in partisan preference combined with slight turnout declines amplified the electoral impact [4] [6].
4. Educational, gender and infrequent-voter dynamics compounded the drop
Beyond age and race, turnout declines were concentrated among less frequent voters and shifted by education and gender: noncollege voters and men were relatively more likely to support the Republican candidate in 2024, and infrequent or sporadic voters were a key source of the overall change because they are both numerous and highly variable in whether they vote from cycle to cycle [6] [4]. PRRI’s post-election survey underscores that a sizable share of registered voters—41%—did not vote in 2024, and that nonvoters differ sharply by income, education and marriage status, pointing to structural gaps in participation that feed turnout swings [9].
5. Measurement caveats and competing narratives
Different methodologies yield different answers: validated voter-file analyses (Catalist, CIRCLE) produce somewhat smaller racial-group declines in some cases than exit polls or convenience online panels (Navigator, NBC), and Pew cautions that changes in turnout versus changes in vote choice both mattered—Republican-leaning eligible voters were more likely to turn out in 2024 than Democratic-leaning ones, magnifying even modest demographic turnout shifts [4] [3] [6]. This means that while youth and Hispanic declines stand out across datasets, the precise apportionment of the national turnout drop to specific groups depends on the source and the geography examined [1] [2].
Conclusion
All major public analyses converge on a clear narrative: the 2024 drop from 2020 was modest in percentage terms but driven disproportionately by lower participation among younger voters and by a notable fall in Hispanic turnout, with smaller declines among Black and AAPI voters and compounded effects from shifts among noncollege and infrequent voters; older voters, by contrast, increased turnout and partially offset the decline [3] [2] [4] [6].