Which demographic groups shifted their support for Trump between 2016 and 2025?
Executive summary
Donald Trump’s 2024-25 coalition shifted notably from 2016: his advantage among voters without four‑year college degrees doubled to a 14‑point edge (56%–42%) versus 2016 [1]. He also made measurable gains among Hispanic, Black and Asian voters — narrowing the Hispanic gap to a 3‑point loss in 2024 after much larger Democratic margins in 2016 and 2020 — and boosted rural support (69% rural in 2024) [2] [3] [1].
1. Education: the widening non‑college gap that powered Trump’s gains
Trump’s strongest and clearest shift came among voters without four‑year college degrees. Pew’s validated voter panel finds Trump’s margin among noncollege voters in 2024 was 14 points (56%–42%), roughly double his margin in 2016, making education the single most consistent axis of change across his campaigns [1]. Analysts in the sources link this shift both to vote choice changes and differential turnout: a larger share of Trump’s 2020 backers returned to vote in 2024 compared with Biden’s backers [1] [4].
2. Race and ethnicity: a more racially diverse Republican coalition
Pew reports that Trump’s 2024 voters were “more racially and ethnically diverse” than in his prior campaigns, reflecting gains among Hispanic, Black and Asian voters [2]. The most visible example: Hispanic voters moved sharply toward Trump between 2016/2020 and 2024 — from Democratic margins of 25 points in 2020 and larger in 2016, to Trump losing Hispanics by only 3 points in 2024 [3]. Sources say Trump also received a higher share of Black votes in 2024 than in previous cycles, though Black voters remained strongly Democratic (about 83% for Harris in 2024, with roughly 15% for Trump) [3].
3. Geography and the rural surge
Trump’s rural performance increased between 2016 and 2024. In 2016 he won many rural counties, but by 2024 Pew documents an expanded rural margin — 69% of rural voters backed Trump versus 29% for Harris — larger than his margins in 2016 and 2020 [1] [3]. The rural gains amplified statelevel advantages in swing states and were a core element of his 2024 coalition [5].
4. Age and subgroups: younger voters and education‑by‑race interactions
Available reporting signals important subgroup shifts rather than uniform age swings. Northeastern’s interactive tool — cited by news coverage — highlights large moves among subgroups such as younger Black voters with a high school education or less (a 20‑point swing toward Trump between 2020 and 2024) and Hispanic men with lower education and incomes shifting toward Trump [5]. National summaries from Pew and PRRI emphasize that these are not monolithic age effects but intersect with education, race and income [3] [6].
5. Gender: persistent gaps but important education splits among white women
Gender remained a durable fault line: men were more likely to back Trump overall while women favored the Democratic ticket, consistent with historical patterns [7] [8]. But CAWP and related analyses note a growing education gap among white women — college‑educated white women moved further toward Democrats since 2016, while non‑college white women continued to back the Republican nominee in high numbers [7].
6. Turnout dynamics: who showed up — and why that matters
Pew’s panel analysis stresses that part of the apparent shift in coalitions reflects turnout differences: Trump’s 2020 voters turned out at higher rates in 2024 (about 89%) than Biden’s 2020 voters did (about 85%), and Trump also captured a higher share of people who had not voted in the previous presidential election — reversing a 2016/2020 pattern where nonvoters tended to favor Democrats [1] [4]. These turnout patterns magnified Trump’s improvements among certain groups.
7. Where reporting agrees — and where it leaves open questions
Multiple sources (Pew, PRRI, Northeastern tool, CAWP/Rutgers) consistently identify gains among non‑college voters, rural communities, and greater racial/ethnic diversity for Trump’s 2024 voters [1] [2] [3] [5] [7]. Where sources diverge is in magnitude for some subgroups and in interpretation of causes: Pew emphasizes validated panel data and turnout effects [1] [4], Northeastern highlights fine‑grained subgroup shifts via an interactive tool [5], and PRRI focuses on cultural and partisan attitudes correlated with vote choice [6]. Available sources do not mention precise county‑level swing magnitudes for every subgroup or post‑2024 attrition patterns beyond initial analyses (not found in current reporting).
8. Bottom line for readers and political watchers
The net effect from 2016 to 2024 is clear in the reporting: Trump’s coalition became less uniformly white and more weighted toward voters without four‑year degrees, with notable inroads among Hispanic and some Black and Asian subgroups, and an amplified rural advantage — changes driven by both real vote shifts and turnout dynamics [1] [2] [3] [4]. Analysts must treat these shifts as conditional and intersectional: age, race, education and turnout combined to reshape the map, and the sources caution that further analysis is needed to determine permanence [5] [6].