Which demographics have shifted their approval of Trump most since his return to the presidency?
Executive summary
The clearest and most consistently reported shifts in President Trump’s approval since his return to the White House have come from younger voters (Gen Z/18–29), Latino voters, and independents — groups that powered his 2024 victory but have shown the biggest net declines in approval across multiple trackers and analyses [1] [2] [3]. Aggregators and major polls also show slippage within parts of the Republican coalition and among nonvoters, even as his core 2024 supporters remain unusually loyal [4] [5] [6].
1. Young voters (Gen Z and 18–29): the biggest and most volatile swing
Multiple outlets and poll aggregators identify young voters as the demographic with the steepest post‑inauguration movement: Cook Political Report’s PollTracker finds the most dramatic negative shifts in net approval among young voters, and several surveys cited by Newsweek and YouGov/Economist report sharp drops in Gen Z’s approval and net ratings [1] [2] [7]. That fall is striking because Gen Z had provided an unexpected boost to Trump in 2024 — exit and post‑election analyses show he substantially improved his share of 18–29 voters compared with 2020 — meaning the recent movement represents a rapid partial reversal of a newly mobilized bloc [8] [3].
2. Latino voters: gains in 2024, then erosion in approval
Pew and Cook trace a similar pattern for Latino voters: Trump narrowed the 2024 gap with Hispanic voters versus 2020, but trackers since inauguration show Latino approval slipping as part of the cohort that moved away most from the president in the months after his return [3] [1]. Cook’s analysis frames Latinos alongside young voters and independents as the “coalition groups that propelled Trump to victory” whose waning support most threatens Republican prospects in a midterm context [1].
3. Independents and nonvoters: defections and abstentions matter
Aggregated trackers and Pew point to movement among independents and adults who sat out the 2024 election as contributors to aggregate declines in approval: Cook’s PollTracker flags independents among the groups with notable negative shifts, and Pew explicitly notes that changes in approval over recent months have come in part from 2024 voters and people who did not vote in 2024 [1] [5]. Analysts warn that slippage among independents often translates into turnout differences rather than straight partisan flips, raising the prospect of lower Republican turnout in some contests [1].
4. The Republican base: pockets of erosion but strong core loyalty
Reporting is mixed on the GOP base: opinion pieces and some polls describe a decline in confidence among segments of his party since inauguration, suggesting Trump has “markedly less political capital” than during the 2024 coalition surge [4]. At the same time, Wall Street Journal and Conservative commentary emphasize that an overwhelming share of 2024 Trump voters still approve of his job — one conservative read of the data put that number as high as the low‑90s in some polls — indicating erosion has been concentrated among peripheral GOP identifiers rather than the core [6] [5].
5. Competing narratives and methodological caution
The coverage contains competing claims: Newsweek and some outlets have emphasized a precipitous Gen Z collapse as “the largest shift,” while other reporting highlights continued gains among some young men and a more mixed picture across polls [2] [9]. Polling aggregators such as Cook and Morning Consult stress that sample sizes, weighting choices, and which polls are included change the magnitude (and sometimes the direction) of these swings, and that net approval changes don’t automatically translate into down‑ballot voting behavior — many who sour may simply abstain [10] [1] [11]. Where reporting is silent, this analysis does not speculate beyond the published polling and aggregator findings.