How did deportation numbers vary by country of origin in 2024 and 2025 versus 2019–2023?
Executive summary
Deportation and returns from the United States shifted in volume and origin composition in 2024–2025 compared with 2019–2023: aggregate repatriations dropped from the 2023 peak while the share coming from Central America and other non‑Mexican origins rose, even as official monthly datasets and ICE reporting show major year‑to‑year volatility and gaps in country‑level comparability [1] [2] [3]. Publicly available federal tables and ICE statistics document these directional changes but do not yet provide a complete, harmonized country‑by‑country ledger for all of 2024 and 2025 comparable to the 2019 yearbook tables, limiting precise numeric comparisons for many countries [4] [3] [5].
1. Overall volume: 2023 as baseline, 2024 decline, 2025 mixed reporting
The clearest anchor point in the reporting is FY2023, when the U.S. recorded about 1.1 million repatriations, a high‑water mark used as the fiscal baseline for subsequent comparisons [1]. By November 2024 cumulative repatriations reported to that date were roughly 678,000, implying a material decline relative to 2023 though monthly patterns varied widely and November 2024 removals were still higher than some months in 2019 [1]. Public DHS monthly tables and ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations statistics continue to be updated, but their periodicity and changing terminology complicate simple year‑to‑year country tallies across 2019–2025 [3] [5].
2. Country composition: Mexico still largest but losing share; Northern Triangle rising
Multiple independent and DHS analyses agree that Mexico remained the single largest country of origin for removals even as its share of the unauthorized population and of removals fell compared with earlier years, while migrants from the Northern Triangle—Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador—have grown as a share of arrivals and removals between 2019 and 2023 [2]. Migration Policy Institute notes that Mexico’s share of the unauthorized population fell from about 62 percent in 2010 to about 40 percent in 2023, while Central American origin increased by roughly 1.7 million people in that 2019–2023 window, a trend that is reflected in removal flows into 2024 and 2025 reporting [2]. ICE’s public removals-and-returns pages and ERO country breakdowns remain the primary source for country‑level deportation tallies but must be read alongside the OHSS monthly tables to track short‑term shifts [5] [3].
3. 2024 specifics: fewer repatriations than 2023, shifting monthly patterns
USAFacts’ synthesis of federal data reports the large drop in repatriations through late 2024 versus 2023—November 2024 repatriations were about 55 percent lower than November 2022 and the year‑to‑date total through November 2024 was roughly 678,000 versus 1.1 million in 2023—suggesting fewer total returns in 2024 even as certain nationalities continued to account for most removals [1]. DHS operational tables that produce monthly snapshots are the source for country breakdowns but the public reporting cadence and classification changes mean analysts must assemble rows from multiple monthly releases to reconstruct full‑year country totals for 2024 [3].
4. 2025 signals and caveats: contested narratives and emerging data
Early and partial reporting from 2025 indicates intensified interior enforcement and administrative policy changes that could raise removal numbers and alter country distributions, with advocates and data projects publishing higher counts and wider country reach in 2025 datasets [6] [7] [8]. However, some third‑party compilations and advocacy maps emphasize very large cumulative tallies and novel practices like third‑country deportations—claims that require careful cross‑checking against DHS/ICE official removals-and-returns and the OHSS Persist dataset because those official sources remain the statistical record of removals [9] [3] [6]. Reporters and researchers should treat 2025 country‑level assertions as provisional until OHSS and ICE publish harmonized monthly-to-annual country tables.
5. What the available data allow — and what they do not
The federal OHSS monthly tables and ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations pages permit tracking of arrests, detentions and removals by citizenship but not all releases provide a single reconciled country‑by‑country annual series comparable to the 2019 yearbook table without additional assembly work by researchers [3] [4] [5]. Scholarly and civil‑society analyses corroborate a narrower Mexican share and growing Central American representation in removals between 2019 and 2024, and early 2025 reporting suggests further shifts driven by policy changes, but precise numeric changes for every country of origin in 2024–2025 versus 2019–2023 cannot be fully validated from the publicly available, harmonized tables alone [2] [1] [6]. Policymakers, journalists and advocates should therefore rely on the OHSS Persist dataset and ICE country tables to reconstruct year‑over‑year country counts and explicitly note methodological caveats when presenting cross‑period comparisons [3] [5].