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Did inflation decrease in 2023 under Biden administration?
Executive Summary
Inflation in the United States slowed in 2023 compared with the peak of 2022: the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% for the year 2023, down from a 6.5% increase in 2022, indicating a clear deceleration of inflationary pressure during the Biden administration in calendar year 2023 [1]. Several fact‑checking outlets and Congressional releases highlight both that year‑over‑year inflation rates fell through 2023 and that the cumulative price increases since President Biden took office remained materially elevated, leaving room for partisan disagreement about the administration’s responsibility and the lived effects on households [2] [3] [4]. Below I lay out the competing claims, the underlying data, timing considerations, and what these figures do and do not say about the administration’s overall record.
1. The simple data story: inflation clearly cooled through 2023
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that overall consumer prices rose 3.4% in 2023, a substantial decline from the 6.5% increase recorded in 2022, which itself followed higher monthly peaks in mid‑2022; this pattern is the direct evidence that inflation slowed during 2023 [1]. Independent analyses and contemporaneous month‑by‑month CPI readings cited in fact‑checking coverage confirm that annualized and monthly rates trended downward across 2023, with headline measures moving from mid‑single‑digit and higher rates toward roughly the low‑to‑mid single digits by year‑end [4] [2]. Slower annual CPI growth in 2023 is not the same as prices falling; it means prices continued to rise but at a slower pace than the prior year, which is the core factual basis for the statement that inflation "decreased" in 2023.
2. The partisan framing: cumulative inflation vs. trend decline
Political actors frame the same numbers very differently. The House Budget Committee emphasized cumulative inflation since Biden took office—a high‑profile figure often cited as around 17% depending on start and end points—to argue the administration oversaw large overall increases in consumer prices [3]. Fact‑checkers and other analysts counter that the relevant policy question often concerns the trajectory of inflation, not just cumulative levels: the trajectory improved in 2023 as headline CPI growth slowed from its 2022 peak, which independent fact checks note when assessing claims that “inflation decreased” during the calendar year 2023 [2] [4]. Both facts are true simultaneously: cumulative price levels rose substantially since early 2021, and the year‑over‑year rate of increase fell in 2023.
3. Reconciling “did inflation decrease?” — semantics and measurement
When asking whether inflation “decreased,” the answer depends on whether one refers to the rate of inflation (the percent change year‑over‑year) or the price level (how much more expensive things are compared to a prior date). BLS data show the rate slowed in 2023—CPI growth fell from 6.5% in 2022 to 3.4% in 2023—so on the rate metric inflation did decrease [1]. On the price‑level metric, consumer prices remained higher in 2023 than in 2022, so consumers continued to face higher nominal prices despite the slower rate of increase. Fact‑check organizations repeatedly note this distinction when judging political claims [4] [2]. Clarity about which metric is meant resolves much of the dispute.
4. Sectoral and timing nuances that matter for households
Aggregate CPI masks variation: some categories—like food—showed slower year‑over‑year increases in 2023 compared with 2022, with food inflation moderating from near‑double‑digit rates in 2022 to lower but still elevated levels in 2023, illustrating a partial easing of cost pressures for households [5]. The BLS and economic reviews emphasize that monthly and category‑specific trends matter for lived experience: even with headline inflation slowing, many families continued to feel pressure from persistently higher housing, healthcare, and certain food and energy costs. These nuances explain why political messaging often emphasizes either the improving trend or the ongoing pain, depending on the desired narrative [1] [5].
5. What mainstream fact‑checkers concluded and where disagreements persist
Fact‑checking outlets and analyses reached convergent factual points: inflation rates moved down during 2023 from 2022 peaks, but cumulative increases since the start of the Biden presidency remained substantial, and partisan actors selectively highlighted one or the other to support their claims [2] [6] [3] [4]. One review noted Biden’s final 12‑month CPI increase remained around 3%, which some used to argue inflation had not "ended" [6]. The disagreement is more about emphasis and responsibility than about the underlying BLS numbers, which consistently show the year‑over‑year deceleration through 2023.
6. Bottom line for readers and for accountability
The empirical bottom line is straightforward: inflation slowed in calendar year 2023 as measured by the CPI, with 2023’s annual increase notably below 2022’s peak, but the accumulated rise in prices since 2021 left many households worse off and shaped partisan claims about responsibility [1] [3]. Evaluating presidential performance therefore requires separating the measurable trend (inflation deceleration in 2023) from normative judgments about policy responsibility and the distributional impacts of prior price increases—matters on which different fact‑checking and political sources rightly emphasize different facts [2] [4].