Did Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin flip in 2024 and what were their exact margins?
Executive summary
All three Rust Belt swing states—Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—flipped from the Democratic column in 2020 to Republican in 2024; Donald Trump carried Michigan by 1.42%, Pennsylvania by 1.71%, and Wisconsin by 0.86% (vote margins: Michigan 80,103; Pennsylvania 120,266; Wisconsin 29,397) [1] [2]. These were narrow victories that together supplied Trump the Electoral College path to 270 and reflected a broader rightward shift across many counties in 2024 [3] [2].
1. Michigan: a narrow Republican reclaim, 1.42% (80,103 votes)
Michigan, long viewed as a crucial battleground and one of the “blue wall” states Biden won in 2020, swung back to Trump in 2024, with Trump defeating Kamala Harris by 1.42%, a raw vote margin of roughly 80,103 votes, according to post‑election tallies cited in multiple summaries of the contest [4] [1]. Analysts pointed to a small statewide shift that nonetheless flipped the state’s 15 electoral votes and to ticket‑splitting on down‑ballot races—Democrat Elissa Slotkin narrowly held a Senate seat even as the top of the ticket moved Republican—evidence that some voters selectively split their ballots [4].
2. Pennsylvania: the tipping‑point flip, 1.71% (120,266 votes)
Pennsylvania returned to the Republican column as well, with Trump winning by 1.71%, a margin of about 120,266 votes, making it one of the closest large swing states and the declared “tipping‑point” in many post‑election analyses that tracked the Electoral College outcome [1] [2]. The New York Times and other outlets documented a broad “red shift” across counties that helped power Trump’s gains; Pennsylvania’s urban cores remained Democratic but were outweighed by Trump’s improved performance in many suburban and exurban areas [3].
3. Wisconsin: the smallest margin among the three, 0.86% (29,397 votes)
Wisconsin flipped as well, the slimmest of the three moves, with Trump winning by 0.86%—about 29,397 votes—according to consolidated national result summaries [1] [2]. The BBC and other outlets highlighted Wisconsin as key to sealing the Electoral College for Trump, and experts noted that while margins were tiny, the trend of county‑level movement toward Trump was widespread across the state [5] [3].
4. How to read “flipped” in context: small margins, big consequences
Describing these states as having “flipped” is accurate in the straightforward partisan sense—each voted Democratic in 2020 and Republican in 2024—but the practical story is one of very narrow margins: combined, the three states’ vote differentials summed to roughly 229,726 votes, a quantum repeatedly noted by analysts as the exact swing that would have reversed the Electoral College outcome [2]. That framing underlines how slim shifts in turnout and county margins can determine the presidency even while many precincts and down‑ballot races diverge from the top‑line results [2] [1].
5. Contested narratives and reporting limits
Reporting from national outlets and research groups uniformly shows the flips and these specific margins, but the sources provided are summaries and compilations (Wikipedia, CFR, BBC, NYT, USAFacts) rather than individual certified state canvass documents; where official state certification or county‑level audits are needed for microdetail, the available reporting here does not replace that primary documentation [1] [3] [2]. Alternative readings—pointing to localized ballot dynamics, third‑party vote effects, or turnout changes among specific demographic groups—are discussed in the broader journalism of the election but are not exhaustively documented in the set of sources provided [4] [6].