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Fact check: What do national polls say about Donald Trump's approval rating in 2025?
Executive Summary
President Donald Trump’s national approval rating in late October 2025 clusters in the high-30s to low-40s across multiple national polls, with standardized estimates centering around 39–41% approval and disapproval rates near the high-50s, producing net approval figures in the neighborhood of -15 to -19 points. Major trackers differ by a few points and by methodology, but the consensus across Economist/YouGov, Reuters/Ipsos, Gallup and Quinnipiac shows a weakened public standing late in October 2025, with several organizations describing these readings as the lowest of his second term [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Why multiple polls tell the same basic story — approval in the high-30s
Multiple contemporaneous polls administered in late October 2025 converge on a similar result: roughly 39–41% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, while the bulk of respondents disapprove. The Economist/YouGov study conducted October 24–27 reported 39% approval and 58% disapproval, yielding a net approval of -19 points and calling it the lowest mark of his second term [1]. Reuters/Ipsos produced a closely aligned figure — 40% approval vs. 57% disapproval — and independent trackers such as Gallup showed month-to-month variability but still placed Trump below many modern presidents at similar points in office, with Gallup’s October number around 41% [2] [3]. The convergence across distinct survey firms with different sampling and weighting approaches strengthens the conclusion that approval is substantially underwater.
2. What the net approval and subgroup shifts reveal about political standing
Net approval — approval minus disapproval — provides a blunt gauge of political room for maneuver. The Economist/YouGov net of -19 points and Reuters/Ipsos figures imply consistent negative net sentiments among the public [1] [2]. Polls also report demographic shifts: for example, approval among adults under 30 fell sharply relative to earlier in the year, with the Economist/YouGov noting a 20% approval among that cohort, down roughly 30 points since February, signaling erosion among younger voters [1]. These subgroup moves matter because they foreshadow future electoral dynamics and can presage harder-to-reverse reputation trends for a president whose coalition depends on turnout in specific age and regional cohorts.
3. How methodology and timing produce differences, not contradictions
Apparent discrepancies between polls — a few points of variation in approval — stem from methodological choices: sample frames (phone vs. online), weighting for education and political leaning, the precise question wording, and the mid-October vs. late-October field windows [1] [2] [3]. Quinnipiac’s late-October reading of 37% approval and 55% disapproval sits on the lower end, while Gallup’s monthly tracking sometimes shows slight rebounds or declines depending on field dates [4] [3]. These are not contradictory signals so much as noise around a common central tendency: approval in the high-30s and a consistently higher disapproval, producing a clear negative net.
4. What pollsters and trackers say about historical context and significance
Trackers place Trump’s standing in historical perspective, reporting that his approval remains lower than most modern presidents at comparable stages of their terms, according to longer-running series like Gallup’s aggregation [3]. Pollsters emphasize that sustained negative net approvals — particularly when near or below -15 points — mark structural dissatisfaction that can constrain legislative leverage and influence media narratives. While single polls can vary with short-term events, multiple independent polls arriving at similar negative net numbers over several waves indicate more than transient fluctuation, and they catalyze strategic reactions from both supporters and opponents seeking to exploit or mitigate the trend.
5. Caveats, agendas, and what to watch next
Poll results reflect both public opinion and the choices pollsters make; organizations may emphasize different angles based on institutional audiences or editorial priorities, which can introduce selection and framing effects [2] [4]. Reuters and Gallup present straightforward national snapshots aimed at broad consumption, Economist/YouGov often highlights policy implications and subgroup trends, and university polls like Quinnipiac foreground methodological transparency for academic scrutiny [2] [1] [4]. Going forward, watch for consistency across week-to-week trackers and whether subgroup shifts — especially among younger voters and independents — firm up. If multiple trackers continue to show approval around the high-30s into November, the reading will solidify as a durable signal of public sentiment.