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Fact check: What do major poll aggregators (FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics) report for Donald Trump's approval rating in 2025?
Executive summary
Major poll aggregators show President Donald Trump’s 2025 job approval clustered in the low-to-mid 40s for approval with a consistent disapproval majority in the high 40s to low 50s. RealClearPolitics’ running aggregate lists 44.6% approve and 52.2% disapprove (disapproval spread -7.6) in its October 2025 snapshot, while other aggregated and poll-of-polls products report a range of individual poll approvals roughly between 40–48% and disapprovals between 49–57% [1] [2] [3]. Several provided sources do not supply a FiveThirtyEight 2025 point estimate, and older historical FiveThirtyEight data cited pertains to 2019 rather than the 2025 period [4] [5].
1. Why RealClearPolitics’ snapshot matters — a steady mid-40s approval picture
RealClearPolitics publishes a rolling aggregation that averages recent national polls and presents a straightforward approval/disapproval breakdown; its October 31, 2025, page shows 44.6% approve and 52.2% disapprove, giving a net approval spread of -7.6 [1]. That RCP number reflects a mix of contemporary polls and is useful as a quick indicator of public sentiment because it aggregates multiple pollsters, smoothing single-poll volatility. RCP’s figure is dated and explicit in the provided analysis and should be read as a snapshot tied to late October 2025 rather than an unchanging metric. The analysis also shows RCP’s listed polls span a modest band of results, which explains why the aggregate sits in the mid-40s rather than at either extreme [2].
2. Where other aggregators and poll-of-polls line up — mixed methods, similar conclusions
Polling trackers and poll-of-polls products referenced in the available material, including CNN’s Poll of Polls and other aggregator summaries, show individual poll estimates clustering around the low 40s with some polling houses reporting slightly higher or lower figures. Specific examples cited include approvals at 42% (UMass Lowell/YouGov), 40% (Reuters/Ipsos), 41% (Gallup), 44% (CNBC), and 37% (AP-NORC) in various recent polls, illustrating the dispersion within the broader mid-40s aggregate [3]. The sources note that while the exact number varies by methodology, weighting, and timing, the practical story is consistent: approval is below majority and disapproval exceeds approval in late 2025 [3].
3. What’s missing on FiveThirtyEight and why context matters
The provided materials do not include a direct FiveThirtyEight 2025 approval estimate; the only FiveThirtyEight figure cited in these analyses is historical — 41.0% approval in September 2019 with 53.7% disapproval — which is not relevant to the 2025 environment [4]. Several other news excerpts and polling rundowns in the dataset explicitly decline to report a FiveThirtyEight 2025 value and instead focus on specific poll stories from October 2025, like how the government shutdown affected public views. The absence of a FiveThirtyEight 2025 figure in the supplied analyses means any comparison should rely on other aggregators and poll-of-polls cited here, especially RealClearPolitics and the compilation of individual recent polls [5] [6].
4. How poll timing, sample, and current events shape these numbers
Late-2025 developments — including reported political events such as a government shutdown and debates over legislative rules — influenced multiple polls cited in October 2025 and produce short-term movement in approval ratings [5] [6]. Aggregators like RCP smooth across pollster methodologies, but individual surveys differ by likely voter models, weighting by demographics, and fielding dates; that explains why some polls show approval near 48% while others are in the high 30s, yet the aggregate remains in the low-to-mid 40s [2] [3]. Analysts should treat single-poll outliers as less definitive than multi-poll aggregates because events can cause transient swings that aggregates moderate [2] [3].
5. Bottom line and practical takeaway for readers
Based on the supplied analyses, the most defensible current figure is RealClearPolitics’ late-October 2025 aggregate of 44.6% approval and 52.2% disapproval, while a review of individual recent polls shows approval generally between 40% and 48% with disapproval commonly between 49% and 57% [1] [2] [3]. FiveThirtyEight’s 2025 estimate is not present in the provided dataset and older FiveThirtyEight historical numbers are from 2019 and therefore irrelevant for the present comparison [4] [5]. Readers seeking the most up-to-date figure should consult the live aggregator pages directly, but the consistent theme across sources here is a sub-50% approval rating and a disapproval plurality in late 2025 [1] [2] [3].