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How has Donald Trump's approval rating evolved over time?
Executive summary
Donald Trump’s approval has declined through 2025 and hit multiple second-term lows in November, with recent Reuters/Ipsos and other polls showing approvals of about 37–38% and disapproval often in the high 50s to 60s (e.g., 38% approval, 60% disapprove in Reuters/Ipsos) [1] [2]. Aggregators and analysts — including Nate Silver’s crew and RealClearPolitics averages — describe a steady slide since inauguration and warn his second-term trajectory mirrors historical post-inauguration declines [3] [4].
1. The simple arc: from modest start to steady decline
Trump began his second, non‑consecutive term with approval ratings near the high 40s (about 47% at inauguration), but multiple polls through 2025 show a downward trend into the high 30s by mid–November, a fall of roughly 9 points since January, leaving him near the weakest points of recent presidents’ post‑inauguration ratings [1] [4]. News outlets and pollsters repeatedly flagged new lows in early and mid November: The Guardian reported a 37% reading; Reuters/Ipsos and other national polls put him around 38% [5] [1].
2. How different polls measure the slump
Individual polls vary: Reuters/Ipsos recently found 38% approval and a -22 net rating (38% approve, 60% disapprove) in mid‑November; Fox News polling placed him at about 41% in its sample; Morning Consult and other trackers showed net negatives (e.g., Morning Consult reported a -10 net in early November with 44% approve/54% disapprove) [1] [6] [7] [2]. Aggregators and long‑run trackers (New York Times interactive averages, Decision Desk HQ) show the same downward slope when smoothing over poll‑by‑poll noise [4] [8].
3. Who’s shifting — fault lines inside the electorate
Polling shows uneven declines across groups. Reuters/Ipsos found approval among Republicans slipped from 87% early in November to 82% later in the month; other surveys show steeper erosion within segments like white voters without college degrees and men, where disapproval hit career highs in some polls [1] [9]. College‑educated voters have shown lower approval than non‑college in many Reuters/Ipsos releases (33% approve among college‑educated vs. 42% without) [10].
4. Immediate drivers flagged by pollsters
Polls and reporting link the late‑2025 declines to a mix of factors: worries about the cost of living and grocery prices, fallout from renewed attention to Jeffrey Epstein files, and political events such as a lengthy federal shutdown. Reuters/Ipsos and Newsweek cited cost‑of‑living concerns and Epstein‑related controversies as central to recent slides; Morning Consult and other reporting tied net drops to the shutdown’s political fallout [1] [11] [7].
5. How analysts place this in historical perspective
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin and other analysts note that second terms commonly see presidents lose approval over time — a median decline pattern that Trump appears to be following, with commentators describing his recent fall as “right on trend” for historical second‑term erosion [3]. The New York Times’ rolling averages compare Trump’s net approval with past presidents and record that his current second‑term lows are comparable to low points of recent administrations [4].
6. Polling caveats and competing interpretations
Poll methodology, timing, sample composition and question wording produce variance: Fox, Reuters/Ipsos, Morning Consult, CNN/SSRS and others report different snapshots [6] [1] [7] [4]. Some outlets emphasize that while overall approval is weak, core Republican support remains substantial (e.g., 82% GOP approval in a recent Reuters/Ipsos release), suggesting a durable base even amid broader erosion [1]. Others underscore that erosion inside parts of his base (reports of declines from 92% in March to lower figures later in some polls) could be more consequential if sustained [9].
7. What to watch next
Poll watchers point to three things to monitor: [12] whether approval stabilizes or continues downhill after the shutdown and Epstein coverage subside, [13] whether GOP base ratings recover or keep eroding, and [14] how economic sentiment (especially on affordability) moves public opinion — many of the recent polls explicitly tie approval shifts to those economic judgments [1] [11] [7].
Limitations: available sources document the polls and trends cited above but do not provide a single consensus series that fully reconciles every reported number; averages and long‑run trackers (New York Times, RealClearPolitics, Decision Desk HQ) are the best tools cited for smoothing differences across individual polls [4] [8] [3].