Fact check: How are trump's approval ratings

Executive Summary — Trump's approval is weak and contested, with recent polls showing notable variation depending on methodology and timing. Multiple national polls in late October 2025 put President Donald Trump's approval below majority support, with net approval ranging from about -9 to -19 points and raw approval figures spanning roughly 40–44% approval against 53–57% disapproval; different trackers show modest weekly shifts but a persistent pattern of party-line loyalty and cross-party resistance ^{[1] [2] [3]}. These differences reflect polling cadence, sample and weighting choices, and issue-specific fallout — especially public dissatisfaction on the cost of living and tariffs — that help explain why some trackers show deeper weakness than others ^{[2] [4]}.

1. Polls line up but disagree on depth — what the numbers actually say about public support. Recent national measures converge on a core finding: fewer than half of Americans approve of Trump's job performance. Reuters/Ipsos reports 40% approve and 57% disapprove, yielding a large negative gap ^[2]. Nate Silver’s tracker aggregates multiple polls and shows a somewhat higher approval near 43.8% with 53.1% disapproval, producing a net approval around -9.2 points ^[3]. The Economist/YouGov measure cited by Newsweek gives a sharper net approval of -19 points, suggesting methodological choices and timing produce materially different headline numbers ^[1]. Each poll captures the same dynamics — limited upside beyond the Republican base and consistent opposition from other voters — but they differ on magnitude, which matters for political narratives and forecasting.

2. Demographics and issues explain the divergence — who is moving and why it matters. Polling shows shifts among key groups that help reconcile the trackers: Hispanics and some male cohorts have trended away from Trump since early 2025, with Hispanic favorability declining from the mid-40s to about 25% favorable in the Associated Press-NORC survey, producing a net negative among Latino voters ^{[5] [6]}. Issue ratings are particularly weak on the cost of living and inflation, where 63% disapprove of Trump’s handling, a chief driver of the Reuters/Ipsos decline ^[2]. These pocketed shifts can move aggregated trackers unevenly: a poll with stronger weighting of suburban Hispanics or cost-of-living-concerned respondents will show worse numbers, while broader multi-poll aggregators mute single-survey swings ^{[4] [3]}.

3. Short-term events vs. long-term stability — how durable is support or collapse? Analysts emphasize that Trump’s approval profile shows a high floor and low ceiling: a durable base delivers stable support but opposition from the other party caps upside, so news rarely produces lasting, large swings ^[4]. Nate Silver’s week-to-week shifts — a slip from a -7.6 to -9.2 net rating — illustrate transient movement more than a regime change ^[3]. Conversely, single polls like The Economist/YouGov reporting a second-term low at -19 net suggest accumulating negatives that could pressure swing constituencies ^[1]. The pattern indicates resilience within the party combined with vulnerability on bread-and-butter economic issues, meaning events that affect pocketbooks can push overall approval more than partisan signaling.

4. Cross-national and comparative context — Americans rate Canada more highly, and tariffs hurt. Broader comparisons show non-U.S. actors and policies shaping perceptions: a CNN analysis noted Canada’s popularity in the U.S. far outpaces Trump’s, with Canada enjoying a strong positive rating while Trump sits near -10 net in that specific tracking, highlighting how foreign-country favorability can eclipse presidential ratings ^{[7] [8]}. Pollsters also link tariff policies to declines in approval, reflecting economic policy effects spilling into presidential standing ^[4]. These comparative data points underscore that approval is not only about character or scandal but tangible policy impacts such as trade and prices that voters experience directly.

5. What this means politically — narratives, agendas, and uncertainty going forward. The evidence supports two competing narratives: one casting the numbers as a manageable base-plus-ceiling dynamic that stabilizes the presidency, and another viewing the aggregated declines and demographic shifts as warning signs for broader electoral vulnerability ^{[3] [1] [5]}. Media outlets and partisan actors will emphasize whichever poll best serves their framing: low-net polls feed a crisis narrative; higher-approval aggregates support claims of resilience. The objective takeaway is that Trump’s approval is consistently underwater across recent credible polls, the gap is meaningful and issue-driven, and short-term volatility remains likely as economic indicators and policy decisions evolve ^{[2] [4]}.