Donald trump approval ratings
Executive summary
National polling through early January 2026 shows Donald Trump running below majority approval in most large trackers, with averages and reputable polls clustering in the high-30s to low‑40s for “approve” and mid‑50s for “disapprove,” while state maps and tracking polls underscore sharp partisan and regional divides that leave him vulnerable in swing states ahead of the 2026 midterms [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Current national snapshot: where the numbers sit and who reports them
Daily polling averages such as Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics present a consolidated view that places Trump generally under 50 percent approval and often in the high‑30s to low‑40s range, with specific polls showing approval figures like 36 percent (Gallup) and mid‑40s in other trackers depending on timing and question wording [1] [5] [2] [3].
2. Partisan and regional fractures: the approval map everyone cites
Approval is intensely polarized—Republicans largely continue to back Trump while independents and Democrats tilt against him—resulting in positive net approval in conservative states (Alabama, South Dakota, Arkansas, Kentucky, Utah) and deep net disapproval in Democratic strongholds (California, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, Hawaii), producing a map that is favorable for him in red states but problematic in many battlegrounds [4] [6] [7].
3. Recent events and short‑term movement: did the Venezuela operation change anything?
Major foreign‑policy events around early January 2026 produced mixed and largely short‑lived effects: some polls (Reuters/Ipsos, YouGov/Economist, Rasmussen) showed a modest uptick or stability for approval immediately after the Maduro capture, while other national surveys reported little sustained bounce and overall averages remained in net disapproval territory—suggesting headline moments can shift daily trackers but have not yet produced durable upward movement for the president [8] [9] [3] [10].
4. Trends and underlying drivers: economy, policy, and presidential power
Analysts and think tanks note that Trump’s approval has trended down from higher post‑inauguration levels (some trackers showed 50‑ish early in the term) to the current weaker standing, driven largely by voter concerns about the economy, controversial policy moves such as tariffs and health spending, and worries about presidential overreach—each of which shows up in issue‑specific polling and commentary as central to overall job ratings [11] [12] [7] [8].
5. Polling inconsistencies and methodological caveats that matter
Different pollsters use differing samples and question wording—online panels versus live phone, varying likely‑voter models, and field dates—so single polls (Gallup’s 36 percent, Civiqs’s 41 percent approval snapshots, Rasmussen’s mid‑40s tracking) should be read in aggregate; averaged trackers like Silver Bulletin and RealClear reduce single‑poll noise but still reflect those methodological choices, meaning small apparent shifts often fall within margins of error [1] [13] [2] [5].
6. What this implies for politics and the 2026 midterms
The combination of sub‑majority national approval, entrenched partisan splits, and state‑by‑state weakness in several swing jurisdictions suggests Republicans may need to insulate vulnerable congressional nominees from the president’s liabilities, while Democrats can point to negative job ratings as a campaign argument—however, analysts caution that economic turnarounds, future foreign‑policy developments, or an effective messaging shift could still alter the trajectory before November 2026 [11] [4] [14].