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Fact check: How does Donald Trump's credibility compare to other US presidents?
Executive Summary
Donald Trump’s credibility, as measured by expert rankings and public-opinion polling, registers significantly lower than most modern U.S. presidents across multiple metrics: ethical evaluations, expert “greatness” rankings, and personal-trait surveys. Recent expert surveys and aggregated polling through 2025 place Trump near the bottom of comparative lists for integrity, presidential greatness, and measured favorability, while some segments of the public continue to view him as strong or decisive; these contrasting signals reflect a deep partisan divide and different evaluative standards used by experts versus parts of the electorate [1] [2] [3].
1. Grabbing the Headlines: Expert Rankings Put Trump at the Bottom
Expert surveys that synthesize historians’ and presidential scholars’ judgments consistently locate Donald Trump near or at the lowest positions in rankings of presidential “greatness” and integrity, notably a February 2024 experts’ ranking that placed him last among 45 presidents with a 10.92% score and described his ethical standing as lower than all presidents since Nixon [1]. The Siena Research Institute’s 2022-style rankings, updated and cited in 2025 analyses, likewise placed him 43rd out of 45 on combined measures such as leadership, integrity, and crisis management—metrics academics often use to compare presidencies over the long term [2]. These expert judgments emphasize institutional performance and norms, and they reflect retrospective assessments that weigh violations of precedent, use of executive power, and long-term policy durability when scoring presidential quality [4] [2].
2. Polling on Ethics and Trust: Public Perception Skews Negative
National polls measuring perceptions of honesty and ethical behavior show Donald Trump trailing many recent presidents in public judgments of ethics and trustworthiness. A Gallup finding replicated and cited across analyses shows Trump regarded as less ethical than presidents of the prior half-century in comparisons conducted during his presidency and cited in subsequent reporting [5]. Gallup’s broader favorability tracking also shows Trump’s average favorable rating (42%) falling well below historical peaks held by presidents like Kennedy and Eisenhower, though favorability is not identical to credibility; it signals enduring public ambivalence or opposition in nonpartisan samples [6]. At the same time, a sizable portion of the public continued to call Trump “strong and decisive,” illustrating a split between views of competence and views of honesty [3].
3. Contrasting Measures: Strength vs. Trustworthiness
Different instruments produce different verdicts: trait-based surveys (e.g., strength, decisiveness) frequently score Trump higher than integrity-focused instruments, which track honesty and adherence to norms. Gallup reporting finds 57% of respondents perceived Trump as strong and decisive, while only 35% judged him honest and trustworthy, a gap that clarifies why his political base rewards certain leadership characteristics even as broader publics and experts fault his ethical behavior [3]. Experts emphasize institutional norms, legal controversies, and long-term policy outcomes; public polls reflect both partisan sorting and immediate impressions. This methodological divergence means credibility comparisons depend on whether one prioritizes normative institutional standards or partisan-aligned leadership attributes when labeling a president as “credible” [3] [1].
4. Historical Context: Where Trump Fits Among Presidents
When placed alongside 20th- and 21st-century presidents, Trump’s aggregate standing is unusually polarized: experts rank him near the bottom, while approval among his political base often rivals stronger presidential approval pockets. Historical favorability averages, such as Gallup’s tracked ratings, show modern presidents like Kennedy and Eisenhower with markedly higher long-term favorability than Trump’s 42% average, indicating that his overall public appeal remains lower than many predecessors [6]. Scholars noting Trump’s inability to create consensus or enduring institutional legacies argue this undercuts claims of enduring credibility; conversely, supporters cite policy achievements and electoral returns as alternative metrics of presidential effectiveness that complicate single-dimensional credibility claims [4] [2].
5. Reading the Data: Limitations, Partisan Lenses, and Takeaways
All measures have limitations: expert rankings are retrospective and emphasize norms and long-term impact, polls capture contemporaneous sentiment and partisanship, and composite indices vary in weighting of traits like integrity, leadership, and policy success. Analysts should avoid a single-number conclusion: experts uniformly rank Trump low on integrity and overall greatness, while polls show mixed signals—low trustworthiness but higher perceived decisiveness among supporters [1] [3] [5]. The most defensible summary is that, by expert and reputable polling standards through 2025, Donald Trump’s credibility—particularly on ethics and institutional norms—compares unfavorably to most modern presidents, even as his perceived strength among a solid voter bloc complicates political interpretations [2] [5].