What is Donald Trump‘s approval rate
Executive summary
Current national polling shows Donald Trump’s approval clustered in the high 30s to low 40s: several recent national averages and major surveys report approval between 36% and 41% with net approval (approve minus disapprove) roughly between -14 and -19 points (e.g., 41.1% approve in Nate Silver’s bulletin; Reuters/Ipsos and Economist/YouGov show 38% with net -19; Gallup reports 36%) [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Approval today: similar numbers, different methods
Pollsters are converging on a picture of sub-50% approval but disagree on the exact point estimate because of differing methods and time windows: Nate Silver’s aggregated Silver Bulletin shows 41.1% approve and 55.3% disapprove (net about -14) [1]; Reuters/Ipsos and Economist/YouGov polls in November found approval near 38% and net approval around -19 [2] [4]; Gallup’s November fieldwork put Trump at 36% approval and 60% disapproval [3]. Each number is a valid snapshot of a specific sample, question wording and collection period.
2. Why numbers vary: poll houses, timing and samples
Differences reflect pollster “house effects,” sample frames (live phone, IVR, online panels), and the dates when interviews were taken. Nate Silver’s model aggregates many polls and produces a rolling average that showed 41.1% on Dec. 2, 2025 [1]. Reuters/Ipsos and Economist/YouGov’s single polls from mid- to late-November captured declines tied to recent news events and recorded approval nearer 38% [2] [4]. Gallup’s multi-week phone survey found a 36% point estimate based on interviews Nov. 3–25 [3]. All are snapshots; aggregation typically reduces short-term noise [1] [5].
3. Short-term drivers: news events and issue performance
Recent declines recorded in several polls have been tied explicitly to specific events and issue perceptions. Reuters/Ipsos linked falling approval to public discontent over the high cost of living and the Epstein files [2]. Economist/YouGov and other surveys noted record lows amid controversies and policy flashpoints, pushing net approval to new second‑term lows [4]. Gallup’s analysis also ties movement to public ratings on concrete issues — economy, immigration, crime — where Trump has mixed scores [3] [6].
4. Coalitions and subgroup gaps: deeply polarized support
Polls show extremely stable high approval among Republicans and weak approval among Democrats, making national swings depend heavily on independents and turnout. Reuters/Ipsos reported approximately 82% approval among Republicans (down slightly) even as overall approval fell [2]. Gallup found Republicans near the high 80s while independents and many women drove declines to second‑term lows [3] [6]. That polarization means national approval can move modestly while base support remains strong [6].
5. State and demographic maps matter for politics
Approval is not uniform: state-level metrics show large geographic divides. Newsweek’s state-by-state breakdown found strong positive net approval in many Republican-dominated states (Wyoming +34, West Virginia +27, Idaho +23) and deep negatives in Democratic-leaning states (Hawaii -55, Vermont -50, Maryland -44) [7]. Demographic shifts — e.g., improved Gen Z marks in one poll — complicate the story further and can alter long-term trends [8].
6. Trend context: second-term lows but historically consistent volatility
Multiple outlets characterize the November readings as second‑term lows for Trump: Reuters, YouGov/Economist and Gallup each reported declines that reached the weakest points of his current term [2] [4] [3]. Historical context matters: approval often fluctuates with crises and policy debates; some polls note prior rebounds after comparable dips in Trump’s first term [4]. Aggregate trackers like Nate Silver’s reduce week-to-week noise but still show sustained negative net approval in late 2025 [1].
7. How to interpret a single number: limitations and best practice
A single poll headline — “Trump at 38%” or “Trump at 41%” — is accurate only for that survey’s sample and period. Best practice is to consult aggregated averages (which smooth pollster differences) and to watch subgroup and trend data for direction. Nate Silver’s model provides an averaged reading (41.1% approve on Dec. 2) while Reuters/Ipsos, Gallup and Economist/YouGov show lower single-poll snapshots in November [1] [2] [3] [4]. Relying on multiple respected pollsters gives a more complete view.
8. Bottom line for readers
Available major polls in late November–early December 2025 place Trump’s national approval generally in the high 30s to low 40s, with net approval negative (roughly -14 to -19 points). Polls disagree on the precise figure because of methodology and timing; all show enduring partisan polarization that will shape how these numbers translate into political consequences [1] [2] [3] [4].