What is Donald Trump’s current approval rating and how has it changed over time?
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Executive summary
Donald Trump’s most-cited recent national approval readings cluster around the low 40s: Reuters/Ipsos and other outlets report a 41% approval in early December, while aggregated trackers show net approval in the negatives (roughly -13 to -18) and some polls register higher or lower outliers such as Gallup’s 36% or Harvard CAPS/Harris’s 47% (Reuters/Ipsos 41%; New York Times average ~42%; Gallup 36%; Harvard/Harris 47%) [1] [2] [3] [4]. Polls diverge because of timing, sampling, question wording and partisan house effects; long-run trackers (The Economist, Nate Silver) show Trump began his second term with stronger ratings that have fallen into negative net territory by December (net approvals between about -14 and -18) [5] [6] [2].
1. What the latest national polls say — a snapshot
Multiple recent polls released in early December show different headline numbers. Reuters/Ipsos and outlets citing that poll placed Trump’s approval at 41% after a one-week uptick tied to his “affordability” messaging [1] [7]. The New York Times polling average and some press accounts show a roughly similar 42% approval with a -14 net approval on that average [2]. Gallup reported a more pessimistic 36% approval — calling it the lowest of his second term — based on a telephone survey covering much of November [3]. Harvard CAPS/Harris released a December result showing a notably higher 47% approval in its registered-voter sample [4]. These are contemporaneous but inconsistent readings driven by different methodologies and field dates [1] [3] [4].
2. How approval has moved over the year — a clear downward trend
Longer-term trackers and analysts show a clear pattern: Trump entered his second term with solid, above-water approval — The Economist’s tracker put his net approval at about +6 at the January start — and then his standing slipped, with brief upticks, into negative net territory by early December, where several trackers put his net around -14 to -18 [5] [2]. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin reported a net approval near -13.5 in early December and described a stabilization after a sharp late-October/November drop tied to the government shutdown and other controversies [6] [8]. Forbes and other outlets note seven straight weeks of net approval -15 or worse in some series, showing the decline was sustained across multiple polls [9].
3. Why different polls tell different stories
The divergence among polls reflects standard differences: sample universe (registered voters vs. all adults), mode (online panels vs. phone), field dates, question wording and “house effects” that tilt results for or against Republicans, as Nate Silver and Reuters coverage emphasize [6] [1]. For example, TIPP and InsiderAdvantage produced higher net approvals in early December but are known to have Republican-leaning house effects; Harvard CAPS/Harris uses a different methodology and found 47% approval, higher than Reuters or Gallup [6] [4]. Reporters and analysts caution against treating any single poll as definitive [8].
4. Which groups moved his numbers — the demographic shifts
Reporting indicates Trump’s party base remains far more approving than independents and some subgroups: Reuters noted 85% Republican approval in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, while Gallup flagged a drop among independents to about 25% and a fall in Republican approval in some series [1] [3]. The Economist/YouGov and Newsweek coverage show improvements among younger cohorts in some polls (millennials’ net approval moved from -19 to -16 in one series), but other cohorts — white college-educated men and independents — showed erosion in several surveys [10] [9] [5].
5. The politics behind the numbers — messaging and events
Coverage ties recent upticks and downticks to discrete events. Reuters and Fox attribute the modest December rise to a focused “affordability” tour and GOP rallying behind the president’s handling of the cost of living (even as cost-of-living approval remains a weak point at about 26–31%) [1] [11]. Conversely, the late-October government shutdown and ensuing political fallout coincide with some of the deeper drops that analysts flagged in November [6] [9].
6. How to interpret these numbers going forward
Available sources show Trump’s approval is volatile but remains polarized: strong inside his party, weak among others, and averaging in the low 40s or mid-30s on many national polls, with net approval on major trackers in the -13 to -18 range [1] [6] [5] [3]. Aggregators like RealClearPolitics and The Economist provide smoother trendlines than single polls and are useful for gauging direction rather than a single “current” number [12] [5]. Campaigns and newsrooms should treat any headline as provisional and watch whether economic messaging or other events produce durable movement across multiple independent pollsters [1] [2].
Limitations and caveats: polls cited here use different samples, modes and dates; they disagree materially (41% Reuters/Ipsos, 36% Gallup, 47% Harvard CAPS/Harris). Available sources do not mention a single, universally accepted “current” approval rating beyond those specific poll results [1] [3] [4].