Fact check: What are the key factors contributing to Donald Trump's enduring popularity among his base?

1. How immigration became the rallying cry that keeps supporters loyal

September 2025 polling identifies immigration as the single most cited favorable issue among Trump’s base, with 55% of his supporters naming it their primary reason for approval; this places immigration at the center of his political durability and messaging strategy ^[1]. The clearest implication is that voters prioritize a perceived policy identity over granular performance metrics, and this singular issue focus explains why actions that symbolize restrictive immigration policies are disproportionately effective at energizing the base. Reporting emphasizes that such issue dominance allows him to maintain cohesion even as other indicators fluctuate ^{[1] [4]}.

2. Betting on base turnout: strategy that converts loyalty into political power

Analysts in late September 2025 argued that Trump’s political calculations deliberately target his core supporters, using provocative moves to galvanize rightwing and conservative voters rather than broaden appeal ^[5]. This strategy of micro-targeted activation rather than persuasion sustains high enthusiasm and turnout among reliably aligned constituencies, creating electoral leverage disproportionate to overall approval. The tactic’s effectiveness depends on perpetual stimulation of grievances and symbolic wins, and reporters note that it is an intentional play to convert fervor into votes, especially during midterm cycles where base mobilization can swing outcomes ^[5].

3. Economics and policy produce mixed effects, yet still feed approval

Experts in September 2025 described Trump’s approval as influenced by both economic and migration policies, where some decisions raise popularity while others depress it, creating a complex cause-and-effect relationship ^[4]. This indicates that the base evaluates his presidency through a blend of material outcomes and symbolic policy commitments. Supporters may continue to back him despite policies that contradict their economic interests because the perceived alignment on core issues and broader direction matters more than narrow pocketbook calculations, making approval resilient even when empirical economic impacts are contested ^{[4] [6]}.

4. The gray wave: why older voters remain a dependable core

Polling from September 2025 shows support collapsing among most age cohorts except those 65 and older, where Trump holds a net +1 approval, highlighting a demographic bulwark for his base ^[3]. This concentrated age-based support provides a predictable electoral foundation but also signals vulnerability: a coalition skewed older is stable in the short term yet may erode as younger cohorts remain alienated. Local reporting corroborates that in heavily Republican counties, residents cite change in national direction and relief at political turnover as motivators—factors that resonate strongly with older voters who prioritize stability and cultural cues ^{[2] [3]}.

5. Local enthusiasm and narrative control reinforce loyalty on the ground

Field reporting in a staunchly Republican Missouri county found voters crediting Trump for changing the country’s direction on the economy and immigration, with palpable relief that previous leadership had been replaced ^[2]. This localized enthusiasm demonstrates how national messaging translates into interpersonal reinforcement and community-level narratives. The perception of corrective action—that Trump is steering policy back toward supporters’ values—creates social validation mechanisms that strengthen loyalty beyond abstract approval numbers, reinforcing turnout and volunteerism in core geographies ^[2].

6. Identity, disaffection, and the paradox of rationality in support

Commentators in September 2025 argued that many supporters act against straightforward economic self-interest, revealing that identity politics and disaffection often trump material calculations ^[6]. The rise of disaffected voters, estranged from institutions and seeking disruption, feeds Trump’s appeal by offering a vehicle for protest and cultural assertion ^[7]. This suggests a coalition bound by shared grievances and a desire to upend perceived elites, meaning loyalty is as much psychological and symbolic as it is policy-driven, complicating efforts to shift allegiances with purely economic arguments ^{[6] [7]}.

7. Limits, contradictions, and what the base tolerates uneasily

Analyses underscore contradictions: policy outcomes sometimes hurt core constituencies, and support has collapsed among younger voters, signaling structural limits to base durability ^{[4] [3]}. The electorate’s tolerance for policy trade-offs depends on continued symbolic victories and issue salience, particularly immigration. Observers who call MAGA supporters “irrational” note that such labels obscure legitimate grievances; the reality is a pragmatic prioritization of identity and perceived national direction over inconsistent economic benefit, leaving the coalition vulnerable when symbolic issues lose salience ^{[6] [4]}.

8. What’s missing from the record and implications for future stability

The available September 2025 materials illuminate motives and pockets of support but lack longitudinal causation analysis and granular subgroup studies; there is limited insight into how messaging shifts might erode or broaden the coalition over time ^{[1] [3]}. Important omitted considerations include the role of media ecosystems, donor influence, and intra-coalition fractures. The evidence points to a durable but fragile majority built on a few dominant themes, chiefly immigration and cultural grievance; sustained popularity will require the maintenance of those themes and continued success in converting them into actual electoral mobilization ^{[5] [2]}.