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Fact check: What is the estimated number of illegal immigrants in the US as of 2024?
Executive summary
The available analyses point to a range rather than a single agreed figure: independent estimates put the unauthorized population at about 14 million in 2023 with preliminary evidence of growth into 2024, implying an unauthorized population in 2024 likely at or above 14 million before possible declines in 2025 [1] [2] [3]. Older government-derived estimates remain lower—about 11 million in 2022—reflecting methodological differences and timing; the gap underscores genuine uncertainty and differing aims in counting unauthorized residents [4] [3].
1. Bold claim: “Record 14 million in 2023” — What that means for 2024
Pew Research and related reporting conclude the U.S. unauthorized immigrant population hit a record 14 million in 2023, a headline repeated across the analyses and cited as the starting point for thinking about 2024 [1] [2]. Analysts note preliminary data indicate continued growth into 2024, and one analysis explicitly states the population “likely continued to grow and peaked in 2024” before a later decrease in 2025 [3]. This framing treats 2023 as a documented baseline while positioning 2024 as a year of potential peak, based on early trend data rather than finalized counts.
2. The government baseline: 11 million in 2022 and why it differs
A Department of Homeland Security–linked figure commonly cited places the unauthorized population around 11 million in 2022, a number used in many policy and legal contexts and reflected in advocacy summaries [4]. The difference between 11 million and 14 million stems from divergent methodologies, sample frames, and timing: government administrative records and some surveys capture different populations and may lag recent migration flows, while independent demographers like Pew use updated survey adjustments and modeling that can push estimates higher for recent years [3] [4]. These methodological choices create the bulk of the discrepancy.
3. Methodology matters: How Pew and government approaches diverge
Pew’s approach combines survey data with demographic modeling and adjustments to capture unauthorized residents omitted by household surveys; it documents a jump from 10.5 million to 14 million between 2021 and 2023 and explains its technique in a public Q&A [3]. Government estimates often rely on administrative records, enforcement data, and alternate demographic adjustments, yielding lower counts for the same baseline year [4]. The analyses emphasize that small methodological changes—survey weighting, treatment of recent arrivals, and how overstays are counted—produce large differences in headline totals, especially during periods of rapid migration change.
4. Border encounters and the narrative: Falling crossings but rising resident counts
Separately, border encounter data show a decline in illegal border crossings in 2024, with some reports marking levels at four-year lows and sharp falls in migrant encounters [5] [6]. Those operational measures track flow and enforcement events, not the stock of unauthorized residents already living inside the country. Analysts stress that a downward trend in crossings during one year does not immediately reduce the existing unauthorized population, which reflects cumulative arrivals, births, and naturalizations over many years [5] [6]. Thus border metrics and resident estimates can tell different stories simultaneously.
5. Conflicting signals: Preliminary growth, a 2024 peak, then a 2025 decline
The set of analyses cohere around a timeline: substantial growth through 2023, preliminary signs of further growth into 2024, and evidence of a decline in 2025 [2] [3]. This narrative implies 2024 may have been the apex year for unauthorized population counts in recent series, with any later reduction reflecting policy changes, enforcement or shifting migration dynamics. The essential point is that 2024 estimates depend heavily on whether one treats 2024 as continued growth from 2023 or as a transition year, and the available pieces lean toward continued growth in that year [2] [3].
6. Parsing agendas and uncertainty: Why numbers are disputed
Every source has incentives: advocacy groups and academic centers emphasize methodological transparency to justify higher recent counts; government agencies prioritize administrative consistency and may produce lower, more conservative figures [3] [4]. The provided analyses caution readers that single-source headlines obscure measurement uncertainty, and that policy debates often conflate flow (crossings) with stock (residents). Recognizing these agendas clarifies why multiple, diverse sources should inform any estimate of the 2024 unauthorized population.
7. Bottom line for readers seeking a concise estimate
Synthesis of these analyses yields a reasoned best estimate: the unauthorized immigrant population in 2024 was likely at or modestly above 14 million, based on Pew’s documented 2023 baseline and preliminary growth indicators into 2024; however, alternative government-based counts still place the stock in the low‑to‑mid‑teens (around 11 million in 2022), creating a real range and measurement uncertainty [1] [2] [3] [4]. Readers should treat any single number as provisional and consider the methodological source before drawing policy conclusions.