How do independent estimates (e.g., CBP, research groups, think tanks) differ on total illegal crossings during Biden's term?
Executive summary
Independent tallies of “illegal crossings” during President Biden’s term vary widely because sources use different measures—CBP encounter counts, “gotaways” detected by sensors, expulsions under Title 42, or net increases in the undocumented population—and therefore produce figures that range from single‑millions in single years to cumulative totals above eight million depending on inclusion rules and time windows (CBP figures; congressional and advocacy tallies) [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. The core government numbers reporters cite: encounters, expulsions and “gotaways”
U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes monthly and annual encounter totals that are widely used as the baseline: CBP recorded record high yearly encounters in 2023 (about 3.2 million) and CBP encounter totals under Biden’s term are commonly aggregated into multi‑million sums by oversight offices and politicians [3] [2] [5]. CBP data also distinguish outcomes—transfers to HHS, releases, removals/expulsions—and agencies reported that millions were expelled under Title 42 during the pandemic period, a fact that increases cumulative “handled” totals without necessarily equaling unique individuals [4] [6].
2. Independent research groups and think tanks: divergent tallies and focal points
Analysts differ sharply: Migration Policy tracked about 9.4 million “encounters” from FY2021 through February 2024, emphasizing repeat encounters and operational strain [4]. The Center for Immigration Studies produced a preliminary estimate that the unauthorized population rose by 2.4 million in the first 27 months of Biden’s term—an estimate about net population change rather than encounters [7]. The Cato Institute highlighted removal/expulsion totals (3.3 million by their accounting) and argued Biden actually removed more crossers than Trump, focusing on removals rather than net inflows [8]. Congressional Republican offices and politicians aggregate CBP encounters, “gotaways” and parole programs to claim totals above 7–10 million during the administration, framing the figure as a crisis metric [9] [1] [2].
3. Why the same border produces such different headline numbers
Differences come down to what is counted: raw CBP encounters count every time someone is detected, so repeat crossers inflate totals; “removals” or “expulsions” under Title 42 are counted as separate events each time; “gotaways” detected by sensors are added by some analysts to estimate undetected but observed crossings; and net population estimates (people who remain) use survey and modeling techniques entirely different from operational CBP tallies [4] [6] [1] [7]. Year‑to‑year policy changes—Title 42, CHNV parole, and evolving enforcement priorities—also alter the mix of releases, expulsions and legal entries, so cumulative comparisons across administrations can conflate different legal regimes [4] [10] [11].
4. How institutional incentives and political agendas shape claimed totals
Republican congressional and campaign materials tend to present the largest cumulative figures by summing encounters, “gotaways” and parole entrants to dramatize scale and policy failure [9] [1] [2], whereas some think tanks emphasize removals or repeat expulsions to argue the administration enforced the border robustly (Cato; Migration Policy presents nuance on repeat encounters) [8] [4]. Media fact‑checking outlets note both the raw data and the ways figures are compared (e.g., selective seven‑day snapshots), warning that such framings can mislead without methodological context [12] [6].
5. What can be stated with confidence and what remains uncertain
It is certain that CBP encounter totals under Biden reached unprecedented annual highs in the 2021–2023 period and that millions of expulsions/removals occurred—numbers repeatedly reported by CBP and summarized by researchers and journalists [3] [4] [5]. What cannot be precisely reconciled from these sources alone is a single “total illegal crossings” number that equals unique individuals entering illegally during the term, because encounters double‑count repeat crossers and expulsions may prompt re‑attempts; different analysts intentionally count different phenomena for different purposes [6] [4] [7].
6. Bottom line for readers seeking a single figure
Expect a range rather than a single truth: operational tallies (CBP encounters plus “gotaways”) yield multi‑million cumulative counts often cited by policymakers; removal/expulsion‑focused tallies highlight millions of processed departures; net‑population estimates produce smaller but still sizable increases; and the gaps between these figures are methodological, not merely partisan disputes [1] [8] [7] [4].