Which European countries saw the biggest right‑wing gains in the last decade and why?
Executive summary
Across the last decade the clearest right‑wing gains in Europe occurred in Hungary and Italy, with major advances also visible in Poland, France, the Netherlands and parts of Scandinavia; these parties have converted protest votes into governing power, coalition leverage, or sustained parliamentary strength [1] [2] [3]. Analysts point to a mixture of migration, economic grievances, culture‑wars messaging, elite distrust and strategic normalization by mainstream conservatives as the core reasons behind the shift [4] [5] [6].
1. The headline winners: Hungary and Italy — entrenched power and a new normal
Hungary’s Fidesz has remained dominant since 2010 and secured a supermajority in recent elections, demonstrating the longest and most institutionalized right‑wing consolidation on the continent [1]; Italy’s Brothers of Italy (FdI) led a decisive shift to the right that produced the country’s first far‑right‑led government and what observers called the most right‑wing Italian administration since 1945 [1] [7].
2. Major advances elsewhere: Poland, France, the Netherlands and Scandinavia
Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) built its vote share massively between 2001 and 2019 though it later faced electoral setbacks in 2023, illustrating both growth and vulnerability [1] [8]; France’s National Rally (RN) and the Dutch PVV under Geert Wilders made significant inroads in national and European elections, with Wilders’ coalition deal marking a historic rightward turn in the Netherlands [2] [7] [1]. In Sweden and Finland right‑wing populists have become kingmakers or part of governing arrangements, amplifying influence even without outright single‑party dominance [2] [6].
3. Why these gains happened: shared drivers across diverse systems
Scholars and journalists attribute the surge to a handful of repeatable grievances: migration and identity politics provided visceral hooks, economic pain from the pandemic and cost‑of‑living shocks increased anti‑establishment sentiment, and the Ukraine war and energy crunch reconfigured security and sovereignty debates in ways right‑wing parties exploited [5] [4] [6]. Tech platforms and transnational messaging amplified polarising narratives, while mainstream conservatives in several countries normalized cooperation with nationalist forces, lowering the barrier for far‑right influence [9] [6] [10].
4. How gains translated into power: governments, coalitions, and parliamentary leverage
The right’s electoral progress translated into different institutional outcomes: outright government control in Hungary and Italy, kingmaker status in Sweden and Finland, and enlarged blocs in the European Parliament where right‑wing families seek to forge influence—sometimes by allying with traditional center‑right groups, other times by creating new coalitions on the far right [1] [2] [10] [6]. These permutations matter because influence can come through policy control, blocking majorities, or agenda‑setting inside Europe’s institutions [10].
5. Important caveats and counter‑trends: setbacks, fragmentation and resilience of the center
The rightward story is uneven: Poland’s PiS lost its parliamentary majority in 2023, AfD in Germany has been damaged by scandals and expulsions from European groups, and many gains have been regional or cyclical rather than permanent—suggesting voters remain volatile and democratic checks can still produce reversals [8] [2] [11]. Multiple sources warn that while the far right has momentum, centrists and traditional center‑right parties still hold significant institutional muscle in Brussels and at national levels [6] [12].
6. What this means for the EU and the next phase of politics
Far‑right gains are reshaping EU politics by strengthening blocs that oppose deeper green transitions, tougher migration rules, or generous Ukraine aid, and by pressuring mainstream parties to shift rightward or risk losing voters—a dynamic that could produce substantive policy shifts depending on coalition math after European Parliament elections [7] [8] [6]. Analysts caution that the ultimate effect will depend on whether these parties sustain unity, transform protest into durable governance capacity, or fragment under scandals and electoral backlash [2] [10].