Fact check: Is the Great Displacement Theory false, even if native European populations are dwindling and refugees keep arriving in European countries?

1. Summary of the results

The demographic data shows clear trends: EU population is indeed decreasing (by 585,000 between 2020-2022), with negative natural population change since 2012, while immigration from non-EU countries reached 2.3 million people in 2021 ^[1]. However, the "Great Replacement Theory" has been thoroughly debunked as a conspiracy theory that misinterprets these demographic changes through a racist lens ^[2]. Despite lacking factual basis, research shows the theory has gained significant traction, with approximately one-third of UK respondents believing it to be probably or definitely true ^[3].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Several crucial contextual elements are missing from the original question:

• The EU is actively addressing demographic changes through policy measures, including a "demography toolbox" launched in October 2023 ^[4]
• Population aging is a significant factor, with median age increasing from 38.7 in 2002 to 44.4 in 2022 ^[1]
• The European Commission is actively studying and developing strategies to manage these demographic transitions ^[5]
• The theory has historical roots in late 19th-century xenophobic ideologies ^[6]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The question itself contains problematic framing by:

• Presenting demographic changes as a binary "true/false" scenario, when the reality is more complex
• Ignoring that belief in this theory is significantly higher among consumers of alternative media sources ^[3]
• Not acknowledging that the theory has been used to justify terrorist attacks and state violence ^[6]

Those who benefit from promoting this narrative include:

• Far-right political groups and extremist networks seeking to mobilize support through fear ^[7]
• Alternative media sources that gain audience through promoting conspiracy theories ^[3]
• White nationalist organizations attempting to legitimize xenophobic worldviews ^[2]