What factors affected gas prices in early 2021 under Biden?

1. What the competing claims actually say, laid out bluntly

The set of analyses presents three core claim clusters. One cluster says pandemic dynamics and crude oil price recovery were primary: gasoline prices fell in the year ending January 2021 but then rose as crude strengthened early in 2021, pushing pump prices up even with weak gasoline demand ^{[4] [1]}. A second cluster attributes significant responsibility to Biden administration energy policy choices — cancellation of projects, new EPA rules, lease moratoria, and rhetoric framed as an “anti-energy” agenda — arguing these actions constrained domestic supply and raised prices ^{[3] [5]}. The third cluster notes external shocks and geopolitical events — OPEC policies, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions, and refinery outages — as major upward pressures later in the term ^{[6] [7]}. Each claim set is backed by different framings and selective time windows.

2. The early-2021 data snapshot that matters to this debate

Official series cited in the analyses show gasoline prices decreased 8.6 percent for the year ended January 2021, while crude oil began recovering and national averages climbed modestly in the first weeks of 2021 as crude reached roughly $50–$53 per barrel; that crude increase drove a 13-cent rise in the national gas average by early February 2021 despite low gasoline demand ^{[4] [1]}. This data supports the technical point that price movements in early 2021 reflected recovering crude prices and demand rebound dynamics, rather than an immediate supply shock from new domestic regulations. The timing matters: policy changes and project cancellations announced on or after inauguration can influence markets, but short-run pump-price moves were closely tied to the crude rebound and pandemic recovery ^[1].

3. How partisan reports assign blame and what they omit

Several analyses come from partisan or advocacy sources that frame policy choices as the central cause. The House Oversight report and Americans for Prosperity list label administration actions as a “Green New Deal” trajectory that raised costs, pointing to canceled pipelines, lease limits and new rules as drivers ^{[3] [5]}. These reports emphasize policy causation but downplay or omit global crude price trends, OPEC+ production decisions, refinery capacity constraints, and the uneven timeline between rulemaking and immediate price moves. The framing aligns with a political agenda to hold the administration accountable; the documents provide selective causation rather than fully attributing the complex market mix ^{[3] [5]}.

4. Independent and contemporaneous market explanations that complicate a single-cause story

Non-partisan contemporaneous market assessments noted that crude price recovery outweighed low gasoline demand in early 2021, and that supply chain and refinery dynamics influenced the retail market. The EIA/AAA-style snapshots cited show crude rising to the low-$50s per barrel and gasoline demand still suppressed relative to pre-pandemic levels; these conditions explain how pump prices could begin rising even before large-scale policy effects would appear ^[1]. Global factors named across analyses — OPEC output decisions, seasonal demand shifts, and later geopolitical disruptions like the Russia–Ukraine war — are independent drivers that complicate claims focused solely on domestic policy ^{[6] [1] [7]}.

5. The timeline problem: policy impact vs. market reaction

A consistent analytical point is the lag between policy announcements and measurable supply-side constraints. Cancellation of projects or regulatory actions can deter future investment and production over months and years, but the market’s immediate price response in early 2021 tracked crude price recovery and pandemic-era demand rebound more directly ^[1]. Partisan reports that present near-term price spikes as caused primarily by administration decisions conflate longer-term supply effects with short-term market moves; the record shows major price peaks occurred later and were amplified by global events and refinery/transport constraints ^{[3] [7]}.

6. Bottom line — a balanced, evidence-based conclusion

The evidence across these analyses supports a multifactor explanation: early-2021 pump-price movements chiefly reflected crude oil price recovery and pandemic demand dynamics, while administration policies plausibly influenced longer-term supply expectations and political narratives about price responsibility. Partisan reports emphasize policy causation and may understate global and market forces; contemporaneous market data and later geopolitical shocks demonstrate that no single domestic action explains the early-2021 price trajectory ^{[1] [3] [6]}.