How did voter turnout by race and age groups compare to registration in Florida in 2020?
Executive summary
Florida’s 2020 electorate skewed older and whiter than the state’s recent population trends would suggest: adults 45–64 made up the largest registered-voter age cohort, and non‑Hispanic White adults have historically been more likely both to register and to turn out than other racial and ethnic groups [1] [2]. Turnout in 2020 rose with age—peaking among seniors—and while Hispanic and younger cohorts grew as shares of the eligible population, they continued to vote at lower rates than older, white voters, a pattern noted by multiple analysts and national data sources [3] [4] [2].
1. Registration makeup — a changing but still older, whiter register
Florida’s registered-voter pool in the run-up to 2020 reflected demographic change—Hispanic shares had grown substantially over the prior two decades even as the non‑Hispanic White share declined—but the composition used for campaigning and turnout models remained concentrated in older age brackets and with a large White plurality, a dynamic documented in state-level registration reporting and demographic summaries used by analysts [1] [5] [2]. The MIT Healthy Elections project explicitly examined 2020 registration trends by race and party in Florida, highlighting how registration sources and racial composition shifted during the year [6].
2. Turnout by age — turnout climbed steadily with age, peaking among seniors
Nationally and in state-level analyses, turnout rose with age in 2020: the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 voting tables show turnout highest for ages 65–74 (about 76.0%) and lowest for 18–24 (about 51.4%), and researchers studying state turnout treat that same age‑skewed pattern as central to explaining Florida results [3] [7]. The University of Florida Election Lab frames turnout reporting around age groups—18–29, 30–44, 45–59, 60+—and emphasizes that older cohorts vote at materially higher rates, which in Florida translated into a registered electorate dominated by mid‑ and older‑life voters actually casting ballots at the highest rates [4] [7].
3. Turnout by race — White voters remained most likely to vote; gaps persisted for Black and Hispanic voters
Analysts and national surveys indicate White adults have historically been more likely both to register and to cast ballots than Black, Hispanic, and other racial groups; Pew and related research flagged these patterns and their relevance in battlegrounds like Florida, where non‑White groups are growing but had lower turnout propensities in 2020 [2] [8]. UF Election Lab turnout tools and the MIT Florida analysis point out that while non‑Hispanic Black and Hispanic shares of the eligible population rose, turnout rates among these groups did not uniformly equal White turnout rates, producing an electorate whose racial mix of actual voters was still weighted toward groups with higher turnout propensities [4] [6].
4. Registration vs. turnout — composition matters, but propensity executes outcomes
Comparing registration composition to who actually voted in 2020 shows two forces at work: first, demographic change expanded the registration rolls for younger and more diverse Floridians; second, voting propensities—stronger among older and White registrants—meant turnout stayed concentrated among those established cohorts. Election scientists caution that turnout measured against the voting-eligible population (VEP) differs from “registered‑voter turnout” metrics and is a more consistent comparator across states, a distinction used in UF Election Lab reporting and national turnout tabulations [9] [7]. In short, registration growth among younger and Hispanic Floridians increased their potential influence, but turnout behavior in 2020 left the actual electorate older and relatively more White than the overall eligible population [1] [2] [3].
5. Caveats, competing interpretations, and political stakes
Methodological choices matter: studies using the Census CPS, state registration files, or administrative vote counts can yield different rate estimates because of how ineligible residents are excluded, how non‑responses are treated, and how voter rolls are maintained; UF Election Lab and the Census Bureau both warn readers about these differences [4] [7] [9]. Political actors can—and did—frame the same numbers to serve narratives: parties emphasize registration gains in target demographic segments or point to turnout shortcomings among opponents’ bases; researchers such as MIT’s Healthy Elections note that operational factors in 2020 (COVID disruptions, vote-by-mail processes) also shaped the translation of registration into counted votes [6]. Where sources lack state‑level microdata in these snippets, reporting limits the ability to produce exact turnout-by-race-by-age tables for Florida—available in full only through state election data releases and the detailed UF Election Lab datasets referenced above [5] [7].