Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
Fact check: Which demographic groups have the highest and lowest approval ratings for Gavin Newsom?
Executive Summary
Gavin Newsom’s highest approval comes from Democrats, with surveys showing approval in the high 60s to high 70s, while his lowest approval is among Republicans, often in the single digits. Polls differ on overall statewide approval and subgroups by race, region, and age, reflecting variation across fielding dates and pollsters [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. What the polls assert plainly — party is the clearest divide
Every available survey in the dataset shows the same clear pattern: Democrats are the most approving cohort of Governor Newsom and Republicans are the least approving. The PPIC February 2025 data reports 79% approval among Democrats, 43% among independents, and 9% among Republicans, a split echoed in other summaries of the same survey [1]. Other polls in the collection report similar partisan gaps even when overall approval percentages shift; for example, a May 2025 poll shows 67% approval among Democrats and 9% among Republicans, underscoring party ID as the dominant predictor of approval [4]. These consistent partisan divides appear across pollsters and over time in this dataset.
2. Where polls converge — regional and partisan patterns hold steady
Multiple surveys agree that Newsom performs better in bluer regions such as Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area, a pattern that aligns with the partisan findings because those regions are heavily Democratic. The PPIC notes higher approval in those metropolitan areas, and Emerson/Inside California Politics also finds the highest approvals in Los Angeles and the Bay Area [1] [2]. The UCI-OC poll likewise reports improved favorability for Newsom in the period after a high-profile clash with former President Trump, which would likely amplify regional partisan reactions [3]. The convergence on geography and partisanship shows multiple pollsters capturing the same underlying electorate stratification.
3. Where polls diverge — headline approval numbers and timing matter
Survey estimates of Newsom’s overall approval vary significantly across the provided sources: PPIC’s February 2025 estimate is 52% approval, Emerson’s March 2025 figure is 42%, and UCI-OC reports 56% favorability in July 2025, reflecting substantive differences in timing, question wording (approval vs. favorability), and sampling [1] [2] [3]. A May 2025 PPIC variant lists 44% approval, showing additional temporal movement [4]. These disparities highlight that short-term events, poll methodology, and whether a poll asks about “approval” or “favorability” materially change the headline number, even while partisan splits remain stable.
4. Demographic nuances beyond party — race, age, and independents
The February 2025 PPIC data supplies subgroup details: Latinos (62%) and Black Californians (59%) show higher approval than Asian Californians (48%) and white Californians (45%), indicating notable racial and ethnic variation [1]. Independents’ approval fluctuates across polls — 43% in one PPIC reading and 52% in another — suggesting independents are a swingy bloc responsive to context and survey timing [1] [4]. UCI-OC’s mid-2025 favorability uptick after a public clash with Donald Trump suggests events can shift older or regional subgroups, which other polls later may capture differently depending on when fieldwork occurred [3].
5. What researchers omitted or didn’t resolve — methodology and margin issues
The provided analyses lack consistent disclosure of methodology details such as sample size, weighting, question wording, and margins of error, which prevents precise reconciliation of differences between polls. Several items reference hypothetical national matchups or presidential prospects rather than focusing on gubernatorial approval, adding context that can conflate statewide job approval with national name recognition [5] [6] [7]. Because the dataset mixes “approval” and “favorability” language and spans March–July 2025, comparing point estimates without aligning question definitions and dates risks misleading conclusions [1] [2] [3] [4].
6. Bottom line: stable partisan story, shifting totals that matter for interpretation
The consistent and robust finding across these sources is that partisanship drives the highest and lowest approval ratings — Democrats highest, Republicans lowest — while independents and demographic subgroups show variability depending on timing and poll methods. Regional patterns reinforce the partisan split with stronger support in Los Angeles and the Bay Area. For a precise, contemporaneous read, analysts must consult the most recent poll with full methodology; within this dataset, the most reliable claim is the partisan divide, while headline approval percentages vary enough over March–July 2025 to require careful qualification [1] [2] [3] [4].