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What do recent polls say about Gavin Newsom approval ratings 2024 2025?
Executive Summary
Recent polling on Governor Gavin Newsom shows a consistent mid‑40s to low‑50s approval range from late 2024 through mid‑2025, but individual surveys diverge sharply depending on pollster, sample (likely voters vs. adults), and timing. Some aggregations and polls show nearly even favorability or low/mid‑40s approval (notably PPIC and Emerson), while a February–May 2025 PPIC/other survey batch reported majority approval in specific samples, underscoring methodological and partisan drivers behind the discrepancies [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Big Claim: Polls Paint a Split Picture — Nearly Even Favorability vs. Majority Approval
Recent summaries and a 64‑poll average claim that Governor Newsom’s favorability is nearly evenly split, with about 34.5% favorable and 34.9% unfavorable, presenting a picture of substantial public ambivalence [1]. That aggregate contrasts sharply with individual statewide surveys from early 2025 that report majorities approving his job performance: one February 2025 survey reported 52% approval among adults and registered voters and 55% among likely voters, a notable uptick from 44% in October 2024 [2]. These are concrete, conflicting claims: one argues narrow net unfavorability from an aggregate of many polls, while another cites a single or small set of surveys indicating majority approval in early 2025. Both cannot describe the same moment without acknowledging differences in sampling frames and timing [1] [2].
2. Mid‑2024 Baseline: Record Low Headlines and the 44% Figure
In mid‑2024, independent statewide polling recorded a 44% approval mark that outlets described as a record low for Newsom, with a strong public view that California was heading in the wrong direction — setting a baseline for subsequent changes [5]. That June 2024 PPIC snapshot (reported by KCRA) anchors the narrative that Newsom entered late 2024 with approval in the mid‑40s and widespread concerns about state direction, which helps explain why later polls drawing majority approval were framed as improvements rather than steady norms. The 44% figure is crucial: it is the consistent mid‑40s anchor cited by multiple later surveys and helps explain why pollsters flagged both gains and continued vulnerability [5].
3. 2025 Trajectory: Multiple 2025 Polls — Stability or Recovery?
A PPIC statewide survey fielded May 22–29, 2025 and released in June 2025 finds 44% approval among adults and 46% among likely voters, indicating Newsom’s approval remained below a majority and largely stable in the mid‑40s compared with 2024 [3]. By contrast, other 2025 surveys, including a February poll, recorded 52% approval among adults and likely voters, suggesting a measurable rebound from the 44% low in October 2024 [2] [6]. Emerson polling in August 2025 again shows a 44% approval and 38% disapproval among California voters, which aligns with the PPIC mid‑40s pattern and suggests that claims of a durable majority were not uniformly replicated across pollsters [4].
4. Why Polls Diverge: Partisanship, Likely‑Voter Models and Timing
The most salient explanation for divergence is methodology: PPIC’s May 2025 survey finds approval highly partisan — roughly two‑thirds of Democrats approve while only about 9% of Republicans do, with independents split — meaning any poll’s headline approval will move with partisan composition and likely‑voter modeling [3]. Aggregates that mix many polls can underweight recent shifts or overrepresent certain sample types; single surveys that claim majority approval often hinge on favorable likely‑voter screens or timing immediately after positive news cycles. The partisan skew in California magnifies small sampling differences into sizable swings in reported approval, so methodological choices explain much of the apparent contradiction between majority claims and mid‑40s stability [3] [2] [4].
5. National Context and Political Cross‑Currents: Presidential Ambitions and Electoral Noise
Some recent national polling about Newsom’s stature in the 2028 Democratic field shows rising name recognition and primary support, but those figures reflect national favor rather than state job approval and do not resolve California polling inconsistencies [7]. Election‑cycle dynamics in 2024–2025 — candidate announcements, media coverage, and ballot fights — created episodic shifts that particular polls captured unevenly, contributing to the mixed picture: state job approval can move differently from national electability metrics, and surveys that conflate the two can produce misleading headlines [7] [8].
6. Bottom Line: A Narrow Consensus and Practical Takeaway for Readers
The sustained, verifiable consensus across multiple reputable polls is that Gavin Newsom’s state job approval has largely hovered in the mid‑40s through late 2024 into mid‑2025, with intermittent surveys reporting higher approval (around 52%) that likely reflect sampling and timing effects; an aggregate favorability estimate showing near‑parity at roughly the mid‑30s speaks to measurement differences between favorability and job performance metrics [5] [3] [2] [1]. For readers, the prudent interpretation is that Newsom’s approval is not uniformly strong but not deeply underwater either; partisan sorting and poll methodology explain most reported contradictions, so caution is warranted when one poll or aggregate is used to claim a definitive trend [3] [1].