Fact check: How do Gavin Newsom's approval ratings compare to previous California governors?

1. What the available analyses claim about Newsom’s standing — a quick harvest of assertions

The assembled reports assert several core claims: that Newsom’s approval is above President Trump’s net favorability in one comparison, that majorities of Californians approved his job performance in early 2025 polls, and that his support has experienced both upticks and declines across 2023–2025. One analysis reports a 52% approval among adults and 55% among likely voters in February/March 2025, another notes identical quarter-to-quarter ratings through mid-2025, while earlier pieces document a drop to 44% in mid-2024. These claims are presented across multiple pieces but lack a single longitudinal dataset that ranks Newsom against prior governors in exact terms ^{[4] [1] [3] [5] [2]}.

2. Recent polling snapshot — where Newsom stood in 2025 and the immediate prior years

Polling snapshots in 2025 show Net positive approval for Newsom with figures such as 52% among adults and 55% among likely voters reported in March 2025, and a tracker indicating stable ratings across the first two quarters of 2025. Earlier, in mid-2024, polls captured a more pessimistic mood — 44% approval and a majority saying the state was headed in the wrong direction. The picture is one of partial recovery from a period of being “underwater”, but also of persistent vulnerability among some constituencies and cycles of attention that affect headline numbers ^{[1] [5] [2]}.

3. How analysts tie Newsom’s trajectory to past California governors — echoes, not exact matches

Commentary draws analogies between Newsom’s rises and falls and the experiences of earlier governors such as Jerry Brown and Gray Davis, who both saw significant popularity swings during their terms. Those comparisons emphasize patterns—policy trade-offs, crises, and political positioning—that produce volatility for California governors. However, the provided analyses stop short of offering a rigorous head-to-head numerical ranking of Newsom versus predecessors; they frame the comparison in qualitative terms and historical parallels rather than precise statistical placement ^[3].

4. Diverging narratives: steady rebound versus declining dominance

Two narratives emerge in the sources: one emphasizes recovery and stability—polls in 2025 showing a return to majority approval and consistent quarter-to-quarter numbers—while another highlights diminished political sway and earlier declines, citing 2024 data where many Californians judged the state off course and Newsom’s approval at 44%. These differing framings reflect timing and choice of metrics: cross-sectional poll snapshots can portray improvement, while trend-focused pieces underscore earlier slide and longer-term questions about Newsom’s ability to maintain dominance ^{[1] [2] [5]}.

5. Polling caveats and the limits of direct governor-to-governor comparisons

The available materials illustrate common measurement limits: polls vary by sample (adults, registered, likely voters), timing, and question wording, producing different headline numbers. None of the provided analyses supplies a standardized, long-term dataset that directly compares Newsom’s approval trajectory to those of prior governors using identical methodology, which makes precise ranking impossible. Therefore, any claim that Newsom is definitively “more” or “less” popular than specific predecessors would be extrapolative beyond the supplied data ^{[1] [3] [5]}.

6. Political consequences and the broader context: presidential ambitions and state politics

Several analyses connect Newsom’s approval to broader ambitions and strategy, noting his national profile-boosting efforts and potential 2028 presidential considerations. The data showing moderate-to-strong approval within Democratic bases and stabilizing numbers in 2025 are presented as supportive of a national foothold, while earlier declines are cited by commentators questioning his statewide control. This linkage underscores that approval ratings serve dual functions in California: measuring state governance standing and signaling national viability ^{[6] [7] [1]}.

7. Bottom line and what remains missing for a definitive historical comparison

The evidence establishes that Newsom’s approval in 2025 is generally positive and has rebounded from prior lows, but it does not furnish the standardized, head-to-head historical metrics needed to rank him precisely against past California governors. To make a firm governor-to-governor comparison requires a consolidated, methodologically consistent time series across administrations—data not present in the supplied analyses. For now, the most supportable conclusion is that Newsom’s popularity has exhibited familiar gubernatorial volatility, aligning him with patterns experienced by predecessors, without a clear numeric placement ^{[1] [3]}.