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Fact check: What are Gavin Newsom's current approval ratings in California?
Executive Summary
Two recent clusters of polls paint a mixed picture of Governor Gavin Newsom’s standing in California: individual statewide polls show approval around 44% and partisan splits with high Democratic support but weak independent and Republican backing [1], while poll aggregates and favorability averages report ~35–36% favorable and roughly similar unfavorable ratings [2]. These numbers reflect different questions, samples and time windows; the data point to weak-to-moderate public standing with important variation by pollster and issue.
1. What the claims say — clear, competing snapshots that demand reconciling
The assembled analyses advance two main claims: a June 2025 PPIC-style report identifying Governor Newsom’s approval at 44%, with 67% Democratic approval but far lower marks from independents and Republicans [1]; and a poll-average/aggregation listing Newsom’s favorability near 35.6% with an unfavorability of 34.9% based on 58 polls [2]. Both claims are presented as current snapshots but reflect different survey constructs — “approval” versus “favorability” — and different sampling frames, so they cannot be treated as identical measures of popularity [1] [2].
2. Numbers matter — parsing approval versus favorability and net ratings
Approval questions typically ask whether respondents approve of a leader’s job performance; favorability asks whether respondents have a favorable or unfavorable view of the person. The 44% approval figure is tied to a specific June poll and includes partisan subgroup breakdowns, which show strong Democratic support but weak coalition breadth [1]. The 35.6% favorability average comes from a broader aggregation of 58 polls and produces a near-neutral net spread given the 34.9% unfavorable figure [2]. That difference illustrates how question wording and aggregation change headline numbers.
3. Timing and poll aggregation — why averages can diverge from single polls
Aggregates smooth idiosyncratic poll swings but incorporate older or lower-quality polls; a 58-poll average giving 35.6% favorable suggests persistent ambivalence or polarization over time [2]. By contrast, a single poll dated to June capturing 44% approval may reflect a short-term reaction to news or a differing sampling approach [1]. Aggregates aim to reduce sampling error but can obscure recent shifts; single polls capture snapshots but risk overemphasizing transitory trends. Both approaches are useful but answer subtly different questions [2] [1].
4. Partisan splits and comparisons — where Newsom’s support sits
The June poll documents 67% approval among Democrats, but only 34% among independents and 9% among Republicans, indicating strong intra-party backing but limited cross-partisan appeal [1]. Comparative pieces noting Newsom’s net approval versus national figures such as Donald Trump’s position suggest Newsom sometimes polls better than certain national figures on net metrics (-9 to -10 vs. Trump at -14 to -15), but these comparisons depend on the poll sponsor and question wording, and mix national vs. state contexts [3]. The partisan contours show a loyal base but limited reach into swing voters [1] [3].
5. Issue-level polling — the Election Rigging Response Act and impact on ratings
Issue-specific polling can diverge from general approvals. An Emerson College survey in mid-September 2025 found 51% support among 1,000 California voters for Newsom’s Election Rigging Response Act, with 34% opposition, suggesting that support for specific initiatives can outpace general favorability and potentially boost issue-linked approval [4]. Coverage referencing Newsom’s use of policy to motivate voters signals that policy salience matters and can temporarily lift approval in subgroups, even when aggregate favorability remains lukewarm [4] [5].
6. Contradictions, agendas and what the sources omit
The sources vary in purpose: a state-focused poll [1] highlights internal California dynamics, an aggregation site [2] offers broader averaging, and policy polling [4] isolates reaction to a legislative act. Each source may carry editorial framing or selection bias: single-site reporting can emphasize political drama, aggregators depend on inclusion criteria, and issue polls often exclude contextual trade-offs. Crucially, none of the supplied analyses fully discloses methodology details here — margins of error, weighting, and exact question wording are omitted, limiting direct comparability [1] [2] [4].
7. Bottom line — a tempered conclusion and gaps that matter for interpretation
Synthesis of the supplied material indicates Governor Newsom’s standing in California in mid–late 2025 ranges from low-to-mid 30s on favorability to mid-40s on some approval measures, with strong Democratic backing but weak independent and Republican support and issue polling that can temporarily improve perceptions [1] [2] [4]. To conclude decisively requires access to the raw poll questionnaires, sample frames, field dates, and margins of error; without those, the evidence supports a characterization of moderate to mixed approval with substantial partisan polarization and variation by question and timing [1] [2] [4].