What are Gavin Newsom's approval ratings by the people of California and why do so many seem unhappy with him?

1. Polling Shows a Wide Range — What the Numbers Actually Say

Across the recent polls cited, Newsom’s approval ratings vary substantially: one April 2025 survey reported 33.4% approval and 42.4% disapproval and found nearly 60% of Californians opposed to a 2028 presidential run ^[1]. A June 2025 Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll showed 44% approval with 54% disapproval, and it highlighted sharp partisan splits in support ^[3]. A UC Irvine survey in July 2025 recorded a 56% approval spike tied to a confrontation with former President Trump, up from 38% earlier that month, demonstrating how episodic national events can move short-term numbers ^[2]. These polls use different samples and timing, which explains much of the spread; no single poll gives a definitive “true” approval, but the consistent pattern is meaningful: Newsom’s standing is frequently below a comfortable majority and volatile around major events ^{[1] [2] [3]}.

2. Concrete Grievances: Housing, Cost, and Public Safety Drive Dissatisfaction

Multiple polls identify housing shortages and affordability as the top voter concern, with one survey citing housing as the top issue for 33% of respondents; majorities also say the state is headed the wrong way ^{[2] [4]}. Economic pessimism is pervasive: one PPIC-style finding notes about seven in ten Californians expecting bad economic times and 42% calling the state budget a big problem ^[4]. Public safety and healthcare also appear repeatedly as sources of voter unease, combining with high living costs to create a durable policy-based displeasure with state governance. These are actionable, non-personal complaints that cut across party lines, explaining why even some Democrats and independents report dissatisfaction rather than pure partisan opposition ^{[3] [4]}.

3. Partisan Polarization and Nationalization of a State Governor’s Role

Newsom’s approval is heavily partisan: PPIC data showed 67% of Democrats approving while only 34% of independents and 9% of Republicans approve, a gap that makes statewide majorities fragile ^[3]. The UC Irvine uplift following Newsom’s clash with Trump illustrates how national political battles can temporarily inflate approval among those who reward his stance, but these surges can be ephemeral and tied more to reactions against a national figure than to sustained satisfaction with gubernatorial performance ^[2]. The 2021 recall is a relevant precedent: while Newsom survived with nearly 62% voting against removal, the recall result nonetheless revealed a substantial pool of voters willing to punish his administration — a reminder that partisan and motivative divides in California are real and persistent ^{[6] [7]}.

4. Polling Methodology, Timing, and Source Bias Matter — Read the Fine Print

Discrepancies across polls reflect differences in timing, question wording, sampling frames, and likely-voter modeling. One analysis flagged concerns about oversampling or question phrasing that skewed past recall-related numbers, and Newsom’s camp has disputed polls showing lower approval by pointing to contradictory surveys ^{[8] [5]}. Outlets and pollsters carry different editorial or political angles; for instance, some outlets emphasize presidential prospects while academic polls focus on governance metrics. Any single poll must be contextualized: aggregate trends — repeated reports of housing and economic worry, steady partisan splits, and occasional nationalization bumps — offer a more reliable picture than an isolated headline figure ^{[1] [3] [4]}.

5. What This Means for Newsom’s Political Future and Why Californians Seem Unhappy

The combination of sustained policy challenges (housing, budget, crime), economic anxiety, and partisan polarization explains why many Californians express unhappiness even as a core Democratic base remains supportive. Short-term spikes in approval tied to national fights do not erase deep, structural voter concerns; likewise, strong showings in some demographic groups coexist with weaknesses among independents and younger voters, complicating any statewide mandate ^{[2] [3] [4]}. Polls warning that a majority oppose a presidential run reflect both personal electability calculations and substantive unhappiness with state governance. The clearest fact is that Newsom’s popularity is neither uniformly high nor permanently low — it is contingent, issue-driven, and sensitive to both local policy performance and national political dynamics ^{[1] [2]}.